The Washington Commanders and Miami Dolphins head to Spain for a Week 11 showdown at Santiago Bernabéu Stadium in Madrid.
Miami is fresh off a dominant win against the Bills, and my NFL picks expect its offense to put on a show against a struggling and injury-plagued Washington side.
See how that plays into my Commanders vs. Dolphins same-game parlay for Sunday, November 16, and be sure to also check out my full Commanders vs. Dolphins predictions!
Our best Commanders vs Dolphins SGP for Week 11
The Washington Commanders are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in their last five games, with four of those defeats coming by more than 20 points.
They'll once again be missing superstar quarterback Jayden Daniels and multiple receivers. With backup Marcus Mariota throwing to a decimated WR corps, they won't be able to take advantage of a weak Miami Dolphins secondary.
The main reason I like Miami to cover is because its offense will torch a piss-poor Washington defense missing key pieces. The Commanders' Top 2 corners are sidelined by injuries, with their best DT Daron Payne serving a suspension. They also lost their top edge rusher to a season-ending injury a few weeks ago.
The Commanders are 29th in the league in points per game allowed (28.0), with that number soaring to 38.5 over their last four contests. With Tua Tagovailoa having time to operate in the pocket, expect Miami to move the ball.
Tagavailoa's favorite target is Jaylen Waddle, who has stepped into the No. 1 WR role after the injury to Tyreek Hill. Waddle has logged more than 80 yards in five of his last six contests, and Washington allows the second-most receiving yards per game (177.9) to opposing wide receivers.
Since I'm expecting plenty of points for the Phins it also makes sense to back their top weapon, De'Von Achane, to find the end zone. The elusive back has scored a touchdown in seven of 10 games this year — including all three Miami wins.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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