Week 2 in the NFL features a duel between rookie quarterbacks with C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans hosting Anthony Richardson and the Indianapolis Colts. Both teams lost by double digits in Week 1 and it should be another long season for these rebuilding franchises.
That said, Stroud and Richards give these fanbases hope for the future and should make this clash interesting. Oddsmakers are expecting a close contest with NFL betting odds having the Texans installed as slim 1.5-point favorites. Here are my best free NFL picks for Colts vs. Texans on September 17.
Colts vs Texans odds
Colts vs Texans predictions
Houston Texans running back Dameon Pierce was one of the biggest surprises in the NFL last year. The fourth-round selection rushed for 939 yards as a rookie before suffering a season-ending injury in Week 13, but he's now at full strength and ready to roll.
Although Pierce was limited to just 38 yards on 11 carries in Week 1, that was largely due to game script with the Texans losing 25-9 to the Ravens. Playing from behind, the Texans were forced to phase out their ground game and ended up throwing the ball 44 times.
That's not a recipe for success with a rookie QB at the helm, and the Texans will want to take pressure off C.J. Stroud by leaning on Pierce and their ground game. With this spread sitting at close to a pick'em for Sunday expect a heavier workload for Pierce against an Indianapolis Colts side that also lost by double digits in Week 1.
In Week 1, Indy ranked 27th in the league in success rate against the run while allowing Jaguars running back Travis Etienne to pick up 77 yards on 18 carries. Pierce rushed for more than 70 yards in eight of his final 11 starts last year and he had a significantly higher usage rate in games decided by one score or less.
I'm hammering the Over on Pierce's rushing yards, which hit the board at a modest 54.5 and is starting to tick up.
My best bet: Dameon Pierce Over 54.5 rushing yards (-110)
Colts vs Texans same-game parlay
Dameon Pierce Over 59.5 rushing yards
Anthony Richardson anytime TD
Over 39.5
Anthony Richardson is a freak athlete who blazed a 4.43 40-yard dash at 244 pounds at the combine. He had 10 carries for 40 yards and a score in Week 1 and he'll have to carry Indy's running attack since Jonathan Taylor is holding out. Colts offensive coordinator Shane Steichen isn't afraid to run the ball at the goal line with his quarterbacks and Houston's defense can certainly be run against.
The O/U is sitting at a low 39.5, which given the rookie QBs and subpar downfield threats on both sides, makes sense. However, both teams are also pretty terrible defensively, and Stroud and Richardson both looked good in Week 1 against quality opponents.
Both offenses also played at a fast tempo with Houston tying for fourth in the league in plays and the Colts ranking ninth. That should help this game go Over the low total.
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Colts vs Texans spread and Over/Under analysis
The Colts opened as slim 1-point road favorites but the line has flipped to favor the Texans at -1. Meanwhile, the total has ticked down half a point from the opening number of 40.
Both teams lost and failed to cover the spread against teams that are projected to make the playoffs. That said, the Colts were more competitive in their 31-21 loss to Jacksonville and actually had the lead until the Jags scored a pair of touchdowns in the final six minutes.
The Colts have now lost eight games in a row and have gone 2-6 ATS during that span. The Texans were favorites just once last season, a 21-14 loss to the Jets. They have gone just 3-14 SU in their last 17 games but did manage to cover the massive spreads they faced at the end of last year.
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Colts vs Texans betting trend to know
In the Colts last seven games, they are just 1-6 ATS, while the Over has gone 6-1. Find more NFL betting trends for Colts vs Texans.
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Colts vs Texans game info
| Location: | NRG Stadium, Houston, TX |
| Date: | Sunday, September 17, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | FOX |
| Opening odds: | Texans -1, 41.5 |
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