Colts vs Patriots Prop Bets: Gains From Germany

Prop bet #1: Gather Moss

I’ll start with a wager that pops out instantly, as one of the books might have rushed making. 

Zack Moss is easily having his best year in the NFL, an opportunity that came about while Jonathan Taylor sat out the first three weeks of the season in a contract dispute.

As Taylor has gotten up to speed, the Colts have given him more opportunities, but this is more of a two-headed attack as opposed to starter vs sub.

The last three weeks have seen Taylor pick up 48 carries to Moss’ 36, but the 25-year-old is still eating.

In a 39-38 loss to the Browns, Moss ran for 57 yards on 18 totes, while Taylor went for 75 on the same number of carries. The following week, a 38-27 loss to the Saints, he picked up 66 yards on 11 rushes, while JT ran for 95 on 12 touches. 

Last week, Taylor had 18 carries for 47 yards and Moss had 26 on seven touches. That’s only the second time all year he’s gone under his total of 27.5 yards.

New England ranks 11th in run defense, surrendering 100.8 yards per game, but teams have been able to find reasonable run success against them. 

In the Patriots’ 20-17 Week 9 loss to Washington, the Commanders’ Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson both passed that number, the fourth team to have multiple backs gain at least that many yards against them in a game this season. 

Look for Zack Moss odds to yield plenty of value on this Week 10 total.

Zack Moss prop: Over 27.5 rushing yards (-110 at DraftKings)

Prop bet #2: Letting his Gard down

I really like Gardner Minshew, but his stint as a starter for the Colts has shown that he’s merely a serviceable pivot in the NFL. 

While the Jets would crave that right about now, he’s simply keeping the seat warm for Anthony Richardson’s return next year.

Heading into Sunday, Minshew is putting up just 169.7 pass yards per game, sandwiched between journeyman PJ Walker and undrafted free-agent rook Tyson Bagent in 35th place. Those numbers are helped immensely with a pair of 300-yard passing games against the Jags in Week 6 and the Browns in Week 7. In every other start, he’s failed to throw over 227 yards.

New England’s pass defense ranks 21st in the NFL, giving up 232.7 yards per game, and just had Sam Howell light them on fire to the tune of 325 yards. 

Is it possible Minshew catches lightning in a bottle a third time this season? Maybe, but in the four previous Euro games, only two QBs have gone over his set total, and it was from the same game: Josh Allen and Trevor Lawrence in the Jags’ 25-20 win over the Bills.

Notable pivots that were grounded across the pond: Patrick Mahomes, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, and Trevor Lawrence (in Jacksonville’s first overseas game) all failed to crack 207 yards. 

Indy’s best chance to topple the Pats is handing off to their two best players, Taylor and Moss, so we're fading Gardner Minshew odds this week while he game-manages. 

Gardner Minshew prop: Under 230.5 passing yards (-110 at bet365)

Prop bet #3: Demario does it

Demario Douglas has at least established himself as a viable threat, something that has been sorely lacking on the Patriots this season.

With Kendrick Bourne now on IR with a knee injury, he’s become the de facto main guy out wide. Last week against the Commanders, Douglas was targeted a team-high seven times, grabbing five balls for 55 yards.

He led the team with seven targets and five catches the previous week in a loss to the Dolphins, though he only had 25 yards. His official breakout game came seven days prior in Week 7, when he had four catches on six targets for 54 yards in a 29-25 win over the Bills.

That’s three weeks at or near the top of the target board, amassing at least 50 yards receiving in two of those games. 

DeVante Parker is also missing this game due to concussion, forcing New England to pull Martavis Bryant (remember him?) off the scrap heap and into the lineup.

The Colts are 23rd in pass defense, allowing 235 yards per game. Demario Douglas odds are as viable a target as he is on Sunday.  

Demario Douglas prop: Over 46.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)