Any lingering questions surrounding Patrick Mahomes’ knee were answered with the Kansas City Chiefs' victory over Denver on Monday Night Football, as the QB powered Kansas City to a 31-10 victory, including running for the opening touchdown.
That effort has the Chiefs laying 6.5 points at home to the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football in Week 2, and my early Colts vs. Chiefs prediction and NFL picks are high on that success continuing.
That said, I'm not buying an upswing in scoring at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday, Sept. 20.
Colts vs Chiefs predictions
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Early Colts vs Chiefs spread pick: Chiefs -6.5
If you like the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 2, you’ll want to grab the spread before it hits a touchdown.
Kansas City’s offense looked like the glory days, with new/old offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy mixing run and pass in Week 1 (56.72% handoffs). That kept Denver guessing and helped the Chiefs dominate time of possession (33:42).
The Indianapolis Colts got rolled by Baltimore’s rushing attack in Week 1, allowing over 200 yards on the ground.
The Colts got mowed down for 5.5 yards per carry and now have to deal with KC’s latest weapon, Kenneth Walker III. The running back rumbled for 173 yards and a touchdown in his Kansas City debut on MNF.
This is a second straight road trip for Indianapolis, and a loud Arrowhead Stadium awaits. I’d lean Chiefs at this current spread.
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Early Colts vs Chiefs total pick: Under 47.5
The bulk of the Colts’ offensive success in Week 1 also came on the ground.
Running back Jonathan Taylor had 98 yards and two TDs on the turf despite Indianapolis playing from behind all game and rushing on less than 38% of its snaps.
With two ground-centric attacks, gains are shorter, and the clock keeps running. That’s a classic recipe for Unders.
When the Colts did drop back in Week 1, quarterback Daniel Jones stunk. He finished 19-for-31 and averaged only 4.5 yards per attempt. That effort finished second-worst in passing DVOA among all Week 1 results.
Jones posted similar results in his matchup opposite Steve Spagnuolo’s exotic defense in Week 12 of last season. He went 19-for-31 for 181 yards but tossed two TD passes in a 23-20 OT win for Kansas City. That game finished short of the closing total of 49.5 O/U.
The extended forecast for Arrowhead shows a threat of rain on Sunday night. I’m going to lean toward the Under 47.5 points.
Colts vs Chiefs odds
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Colts vs Chiefs spread: Chiefs -6.5
- Colts vs Chiefs moneyline: Colts 26%, Chiefs 74%
- Colts vs Chiefs Over/Under: 47.5
How to watch Colts vs Chiefs
- Date: Sunday, Sept. 20, 2026, 8:20 p.m. ET
- City: Kansas City, Mo.
- Venue: Arrowhead Stadium
- TV: NBC
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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