Week 5 of the NFL season ends on a high note with a key AFC battle between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Each team brings a two-game win streak into this evening's matchup, and our free Chiefs vs. Jaguars predictions and NFL picks will tell you which one will come to an end on Monday Night Football this October 6.
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF predictions
- Jaguars +3.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Under 45.5 (-110 at bet365)
- Lawrence anytime TD (+400 at bet365)
- Mahomes o36.5 pass att (-115 at bet365)
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF best bets
Jaguars +3.5
Josh Inglis notes the Kansas City Chiefs' straight-up success vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars (won eight straight), but feels that Jags +3.5 is the better spread bet, especially if the injury report comes up clean.
"This spread was -3 on the lookahead, opened back up at -3, and hit -3.5 sometime Monday afternoon. It has been bouncing around in places, but getting the +3.5 right now is the shorter side. If the Jags get healthier on the O-line, that 3.5 could close at 3."
Under 45.5
Inglis is going against the early line movement for this prime time game and grabbing the Under.
"I don't get the love for this Over. These are two great defenses facing off, and this total has moved from 44.5 (lookahead), to 46 (on the Sunday opener), and has hit as high as 46.5. The Chiefs just embarrassed the Ravens; T-Law is next."
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF TD picks
Trevor Lawrence anytime TD
Jeremy Jones is rolling with a live long shot TD play in Trevor Lawrence.
"I expect the Chiefs to play lots of zone with some blitzes mixed in, and that will likely force Lawrence to scramble more than usual. The Chiefs have given up quite a few scrambles this year and have allowed one quarterback rushing touchdown already. Lawrence does not have a ton of yards scrambling this year, but he has taken off at least twice in each game this season and has 15 carries overall."
Chiefs vs Jaguars MNF props
Patrick Mahomes Over 36.5 passing attempts
Ed Scimia believes Patrick Mahomes will have a busy night as the Chiefs' ground game continues to struggle.
"While the Kansas City Chiefs haven’t been brilliant in any aspect of their offensive attack this year, one thing is clear: this is still Patrick Mahomes’ offense. Mahomes has thrown at least 37 passes in three of his first four games, and should be tasked with throwing all game long in a close game against a tough Jacksonville defense."
Chiefs vs Jaguars odds
Chiefs vs Jaguars game info
| Location: | Everbank Stadium, Jacksonville, FL |
| Date: | Monday, October 6, 2025 |
| Kickoff: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV: | ESPN |
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Chiefs vs Jaguars weather
Jacksonville is serving up classic October humidity tonight. For kickoff around 8:15 p.m. ET at EverBank Stadium, expect mostly cloudy skies and temps near 78–79°F. A few pop-up storms are still in the mix; timing leans toward spotty downpours around the second and third quarters (9–10 p.m.), with plenty of dry breaks between cells. If one drifts over the stadium, a brief lightning delay can’t be ruled out, but a full washout isn’t expected.
By the fourth quarter, readings slide to the mid–upper 70s with clouds lingering. Translation: hydrate, watch the skies, and keep your poncho handy.
Monitor gametime conditions with our live NFL weather info and learn how weather impacts NFL betting.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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