One of the best games on the Week 17 NFL betting slate will take place on the Ohio River at Paul Brown Stadium, where the Kansas City Chiefs will travel to face the Cincinnati Bengals.
Kansas City extended its win streak to eight games last week and can secure the top seed and a bye in the AFC on Sunday, while the hosts remain on top of a bizarrely competitive AFC North.
Here are our NFL picks and predictions for Chiefs vs. Bengals, with kickoff on January 2.
Chiefs vs Bengals odds
Odds via the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point favorites but have since been bet up to -5 or -5.5, depending on the book. Action on the Over has seen the total grow to 51 or 51.5 since opening at 49.
Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.
Chiefs vs Bengals predictions
- Prediction: Chiefs -5 (-110)
- Prediction: Under 51 (-110)
- Best bet: Williams Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
Predictions made on 12/30/2021 at 4:00 p.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Chiefs vs Bengals game info
• Location: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
• Date: Sunday, January 2, 2022
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS
Chiefs at Bengals betting preview
Weather
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Key injuries
Chiefs: Clyde Edwards-Helaire RB (Out).
Bengals: Jalen Davis CB (Out), Cameron Sample DE (Out), Trae Waynes CB (Out).
Find our latest NFL injury reports.
Betting trend to know
The Chiefs are 6-0 ATS in their last six games. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bengals.
Chiefs vs Bengals picks and predictions
Our predictions are compiled from the analysis of the spread and total and are indications of where we are leaning for this game.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this game, which we would actually put some of our bankroll behind.
Spread analysis
The Chiefs dispatched the Steelers last week with ease, pushing aside a bad team to extend their win streak to eight games. A surging defense and hyper-efficient offense have come together to keep Kansas City as a Super Bowl favorite, despite the offense appearing different from recent seasons.
After holding Pittsburgh to 0.9 points and 27.7 yards per drive in a 36-10 hammering, Kansas City's defense has continued to improve all the way to ninth in weighted DVOA. Season-long metrics can be thrown out in relation to the Chiefs' defense. They create turnovers (28, fourth in the NFL) and pressure (seventh) at a high rate, and limit explosive plays (13th). Kansas City is, inarguably, a good defense. And that's more than enough.
It's enough because on the other side is an offense that's continued to perform despite having to evolve on the fly and face bumps they've avoided in recent years. The Chiefs are still fourth in passing DVOA, first in drive success rate, and first in yards and points per drive. Despite missing a Jenga piece in Travis Kelce last week, Patrick Mahomes led seven scoring drives in 10 possessions, with another ending with a missed 39-yard field goal.
With Kelce set to return and Tyreek Hill getting in a full week of practice, there's no doubt the Chiefs can go shot-for-shot with the Bengals' offense and Joe Burrow, coming off the game of a lifetime. Though Cincinnati's season-long marks aren't indicative of a great offense, the trust in Burrow to go get a bucket when needed has been there all season — and it's been consistently rewarded, with the Bengals 11th in points per drive and third in explosive pass rate.
It's going to be a great game, with two offenses capable of scoring at will and two more-than-competent defenses. It'll be a closely contested game that could very well come down to the end but as long as we're getting it below -6, we're taking the scorching hot Chiefs, who have the edge on both sides of the ball.
Prediction: Chiefs -5 (-110)
Over/Under analysis
We're going against the movement here and taking the Under as the total has crept over 50 to 51. While there's a lot of faith in Burrow and Mahomes to trade shots if need be, this is a pick born out of faith in Kansas City's bona fides as a contender.
The Chiefs are going to win here, and since turning their season around we've seen them beat good teams with their defense leading the way, not outscoring teams in shootouts. They took down the Packers (albeit Jordan Love-led) 13-7 and silenced the Cowboys 19-9, and now it's Cincinnati's turn to handle a master gameplan from Steve Spagnuolo's defense.
The Bengals have not been immune to quiet games on offense this year, putting up 16 against the Browns, 22 against the Chargers, 23 against the Niners, and 15 against the Broncos since Week 9. Efficiency has suffered, as Cincinnati is just 15th in weighted DVOA on offense, 17th in drive success rate, and 18th in yards per drive. With explosive plays the lifeblood of the Bengals' scoring, Spagnuolo will do what's needed to ensure the math is in KC's favor in the secondary.
We're not likely to see a repeat of the low-scoring meeting between Dallas and KC but we're not looking at a Chargers and Chiefs-level shootout, either. The total should finish in the mid-40s and with the total bet up to 51 already, we'll happily take the Under.
Prediction: Under 51 (-110)
Best bet
Fourth-year tailback Darrel Williams has established himself as a reliable option on passing downs this year, strong in pass pro and productive through the air. Williams has already demolished previous career highs in catches and receiving yards, with the former LSU Tiger posting 41 catches and 403 yards through 15 games in 2021.
Williams has been of particular value in the passing game when starting, which he's in line to do again in Week 17 with Clyde Edwards-Helaire suffering a collarbone injury in Week 16. Williams' five starts this year have seen him average 4.8 catches and 45.2 yards per game, with his usage not only coming in the flats and at the line but downfield as well.
Against the Bengals, Williams is in a great spot to continue to contribute in the passing game. Cincinnati has allowed the second-most targets, fourth-most receptions, and fifth-most yards to running backs through the air this year. He's a good bet to go Over on both his receptions and receiving yards prop but we're going with yards here, as he could very well top it on just a catch or two as KC pushes him further downfield out of the backfield — rendering his volume irrelevant.
Pick: Darrel Williams Over 24.5 receiving yards (-115)
