Chiefs vs Bengals Week 13 Picks and Predictions: Tiger Kings Still Crowned

Kansas City's going to be vulnerable to the Bengals' passing attack in this AFC Championship rematch, and spotting Cincy points might not be the best play. See why our NFL picks are fading the Chiefs in Week 13.

Last Updated: Dec 4, 2022 8:36 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Joe Burrow Samaje Perine
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Week 13 offers a rematch of the 2021 AFC Championship game when the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs meet the 7-4 Cincinnati Bengals. 

Kansas City is riding a five-game winning streak, including a 26-10 Week 12 home win over the Los Angeles Rams, while Cincinnati defeated the Tennessee Titans 20-16 for its third consecutive victory. 

Can Kansas City avenge last season's playoff loss? Find out in our free NFL picks and predictions for this Week 13 showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Cincinnati Bengals on December 4. 

Chiefs vs Bengals best odds

Chiefs vs Bengals picks and predictions

The Bengals are the 2-point home underdog and my best bet to cover the spread in an exciting rematch of last year's AFC Championship.

After a slow start, the Bengals have turned it up a notch, and the Super Bowl runner-ups have won four of their last five. More importantly to us sports bettors, they’ve covered the spread in eight of their last 10 and should cover two points at home.

The Bengals may miss RB Joe Mixon, but they’ll likely have WR Ja’Marr Chase returning from injury to an already-potent WR corps featuring Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. QB Joe Burrow is third in the league in passing yards and TDs with a seemingly improved offensive line that has kept him relatively clean over the past five games. Kansas City has played well on the defensive line, surrendering 94 points over their past five — but yielding 233.5 passing yards and two TD receptions per contest are where Burrow and the Bengals should eat. 

Still, Cincinnati has allowed 116 points over its last five, and will have a battle on its hands when Patrick Mahomes and the league's top offense roll into town. Mahomes leads the league in passing yards and TDs, and TE Travis Kelce has a league-leading 12 receiving TDs. They miss Tyreek Hill, but somehow the Chiefs have managed to lead the NFL in scoring. 

This could turn into a shootout, and I’m more comfortable taking the team with the better ATS record, and that would be Cincinnati. The Bengals are 3-1 ATS at Paycor Stadium, and their 5th-ranked scoring offense should see a boost with Chase in the lineup against a banged-up Kansas City secondary. Burrow has thrown 11 TD passes over his last five, and a Kansas City secondary yielding two TD receptions per contest is a good matchup for the Bengals signal-caller. 

Mahomes will need a multiple-TD pass day to beat Cincy, but the Bengals allow less than a passing TD per game, and Kansas City doesn’t have enough weapons to counter what Cincinnati brings to the table. The Chiefs might be 3-2 ATS on the road, but they’re 1-3-1 ATS over their last five overall, and I’m taking the Bengals to cover the two points. 

My best bet: Bengals +2 (-107 at PointsBet)

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Chiefs vs Bengals spread analysis

The Bengals covering the spread is my best bet because covering the number is what Cincinnati does. They cover over 72% of the time this season and have covered the spread in 75% of their home matchups.

Mixon has missed the past 1.5 games, but RB Samaje Perine has scampered for 83 yards and a TD with 87 receiving yards and three TDs. The Chiefs have one of the best rushing defenses in the league and allow less than one rushing TD per game, but they let in 83 yards and a TD two weeks ago to Austin Ekeler. Perine is a bulldog, and if he gets the ground game going, the Bengals will win this game.

Kansas City RB Isiah Pacheco has been solid for Kansas City, powering his way to 258 yards with a TD over the past three games. The rookie RB isn’t much of a receiving threat and meets the fifth-best rushing DVOA defense.  

The Chiefs have a three-game lead in the AFC West and likely have the softest remaining schedule, as none of the games remaining after Week 13 are against above-.500 teams. Cincy, however, might have more motivation to win at home as it’s in a fight with Baltimore for the AFC North title. 

Kansas City is 3-7-1 ATS overall, but 4-1 ATS as the away team meeting a Cincinnati side with an 8-3 ATS record and 3-1 ATS at home this season.

Chiefs vs Bengals Over/Under analysis

This matchup has all the ingredients for a high-scoring affair, and I’m leaning towards this game exceeding the 53-point oddsmakers number.

Two of the Top 5 scoring offenses are featured, and we have several highly-skilled players involved in this meeting.

Kansas City is 14th in points allowed and has surrendered 93 points over the past five games, but the Bengals will be the best offense the Chiefs' defense has faced since allowing 24 points in Week 6 at home to Buffalo. 

Cincinnati is 13th in points allowed, has given up 116 points over its last five, and the Chiefs' offense is the best it’s faced by a long shot this season.  

The Over is 5-6 overall but 4-1 as the away side meeting a Bengals team with a 4-6-1 mark to the Under and 2-2 at Paycor Stadium. 

Chiefs vs Bengals betting trend to know

The Bengals are 11-1 ATS over their last 12 games vs. a team with a winning record. Find more NFL betting trends for Chiefs vs. Bengals.

Chiefs vs Bengals game info

Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Date: Sunday, December 4, 2022
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Bengals +3, 51.5 O/U

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