The Los Angeles Chargers head to Lambeau Field on Sunday for a Week 11 odds clash against the Green Bay Packers. Both of these teams are coming off close defeats with the Bolts losing on a last-second field goal to the Lions and the Pack coming up just short on the road in Pittsburgh.
NFL odds have bounced around that key number of 3 for this showdown with the Chargers currently installed as 3-point road favorites. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for the Chargers vs. Packers on Sunday, November 19.
Chargers vs Packers odds
Chargers vs Packers predictions
It's tough to trust an average Los Angeles Chargers squad as favorites on the road but it's even harder to have faith in a Green Bay Packers team led by Jordan Love. Love has a completion percentage of just 58.7% and his pass efficiency rating (80.5) ranks just 27th in the league. He also has a subpar group of receivers around him and while he occasionally connects on big plays his down-to-down efficiency has been poor.
Justin Herbert has also been criticized for his accuracy at times but his completion percentage of 67.1% is still miles better than Love and he's seventh in the NFL in pass efficiency rating while averaging 261 passing yards per game.
He should be able to move the ball against an overrated Packers defense. Keep in mind that only three of Green Bay's nine games have been against teams in the top half of the league in offensive EPA. Those teams were Minnesota, Detroit, and the L.A. Rams and they were torched by the Vikings and Lions while they faced the Rams when they had Brett Rypien at QB.
Green Bay's defense is just 23rd in DVOA and is banged up with two starters in the secondary on the IL and other key defenders including top cornerback Jaire Alexander limited in practice. Both of these teams might stink on the defensive side of the ball but the Chargers have a better chance of slowing down Green Bay's offense than vice versa.
What makes the Chargers so tough to trust as a bettor is their tendency to struggle in the second half of games — especially when it comes to closing them out. That said, they get off to fast starts and are third in the NFL in scoring (16.8 points per game) while ranking fifth in EPA/play during the first half.
Love and the Packers have been getting off to brutal starts, ranking second-last in the league with just 5.4 ppg while surrendering 12.0 ppg. Back the Bolts to cover the first-half spread here.
My best bet: Charger first half -1.5 (-105 at FanDuel)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Chargers vs Packers same-game parlay
Chargers -0.5 first half
Preston Smith to record a sack
Keenan Allen 7+ receptions
Green Bay's Preston Smith has picked up a sack in four of his last five games but he has an incredibly tough matchup this week. Smith has a modest pass rush grade of 65.7 per PFF which means he doesn't consistently beat his man and he'll be facing stud left tackle Rashawn Slater.
Slater was a second-team All-Pro selection as a rookie in 2021 and after a season-ending injury last year he's back to dominating the league. He has the fifth-best pass-blocking grade among offensive tackles and has given up just one sack all year.
Keenan Allen is easily the Bolts' best receiver and with their second and third-best receivers sidelined by injuries, Herbert has been feeding him the ball. Allen has at least eight catches in each of his last three games and is coming off a massive performance against the Lions where he hauled in 11 of 14 targets for 175 yards. Expect Herbert and the Chargers to get him the ball against a banged-up Packer secondary.
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Chargers vs Packers spread and Over/Under analysis
This line has bounced around that key number of 3. This line hit the board on Monday with the Chargers at -3, went up to -3.5, money came in on the home side, and moved the line back down to -3. The look-ahead total was at 42 but after both offenses rolled up yards last week the O/U officially came out at 44.
The Chargers are coming off a game against the Detroit Lions where they lost 41-38 as 2.5-point home faves. They are 4-5 straight up this season but four of those losses have been by a field goal or less.
Despite having the seventh-best offense and fifth-worst defense in EPA, the Chargers have played in plenty of lower-scoring games this year and the Under is 6-1 in their last seven games.
The Packers are coming off a 23-19 road loss to the Steelers and have gone just 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games. Their lone victory during that span came against a Rams team that was starting Brett Rypien at QB and managed just 119 yards through the air.
Chargers vs Packers betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Chargers have scored first in 14 of their last 19 games (+8.00 Units / 33% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Chargers vs. Packers.
Chargers vs Packers game info
| Location: | Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI |
| Date: | Sunday, November 19, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 1:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | NFL Network |
| Opening odds: | Packers +3, 44 |
Chargers vs Packers latest injuries
Chargers vs Packers weather
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