The real Cleveland Cavaliers stood up on Friday, blowing away the Indiana Pacers to set the stage for a monster Game 4 tonight at Gainbridge Fieldhouse.
My Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions expect Donovan Mitchell to maintain his red-hot form with a chance to level the series.
Check out my NBA picks and betting angles for a Sunday, May 11 showdown that’ll be the series' tipping point.
Who will win Cavaliers vs Pacers Game 4?
The Cavs responded to the must-win Game 3 stakes but health is a concern and Darius Garland was clearly limited by his toe injury. Meanwhile, the Pacers are a dangerous home team and seem undervalued as 5.5-point underdogs. The hosts are more than capable of taking a stranglehold on the series tonight.
Cavaliers vs Pacers prediction
My best bet: Donovan Mitchell Over 30.5 points (-115 at bet365)
What’s a level up from “heavy lifting”? Whatever you want to call it, that’s where Donovan Mitchell is after three games of carrying the Cleveland Cavaliers offense — and there’s every reason to expect more of the same in Game 4.
With 89 shots so far in this series, Mitchell has been a one-man wrecking crew. He made 14 of his 29 field goal attempts in Game 3, on the heels of 48 points in Game 2, and the Indiana Pacers’ perimeter defenders have had no answer for him.
They’ve tried different assignments and schemes, but nothing has slowed down Spida, and it’s hard to see a scenario where Mitchell sees a dip in volume.
Sure, Darius Garland, Evan Mobley, and De’Andre Hunter all returned on Friday, but it’s reasonable to wonder what they’ve got left in the tank with such a quick turnaround.
Mitchell’s scoring in this series is all the more remarkable when you consider he’s shooting just 23% from beyond the arc. Instead, he’s attacked the paint, meeting little resistance from Indiana, especially when Myles Turner is dragged out to the perimeter or on the bench. But the Pacers could be in big trouble if Mitchell finds his 3-point stroke.
He’s taken 35 free-throws across the last two contests, putting Indiana in the penalty and grabbing easy points. Win or lose, Mitchell is going to have a huge workload, and I’m wagering on his shot-making to nail this Over.
Cavaliers vs Pacers same-game parlay
Donovan Mitchell Over 30.5 points
Pacers +5.5
Tyrese Haliburton Over 9.5 assists
Despite their Game 3 struggles, the Pacers look comfortable in this up-tempo battle. They’ve won five of their past seven matchups against the Cavs, and they’re 32-13 at Gainbridge Fieldhouse this year, including the playoffs.
That makes tonight’s 5.5-point line a little insulting for a team with Indiana’s postseason pedigree. The Pacers responded well to losses during last year’s run to the Eastern Conference Finals, and Pascal Siakam finally found a rhythm in the fourth quarter of Friday’s blowout.
Perhaps the biggest question for Rick Carlisle centers around his bloated rotation — and whether to pump up the minutes for his starting five.
I’ll round out my SGP with a Tyrese Haliburton prop. Haliburton has scripted some magical moments in this postseason, but he was a no-show in Friday’s loss, finishing with just four points and five assists.
I’m not reading too much into that, though. Haliburton has dished 10+ dimes in 10 of his last 14 games, and he averaged 11.6 APG in the opening round against the Milwaukee Bucks.
A strong Pacers response here starts with Haliburton pushing the right buttons and getting into the paint. With more urgency in the air for Indiana, I expect him to cash the Over on 9.5 assists.
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Cavaliers vs Pacers odds
Cavaliers vs Pacers live odds
Cavaliers vs Pacers opening odds
- Spread: Cleveland -4.5 | Indiana +4.5
- Moneyline: Cleveland -196 | Indiana +174
- Over/Under: Over 231 | Under 231
Odds courtesy of bet365
Cavaliers vs Pacers spread and Over/Under analysis
- Cleveland enters as a clear favorite, but Indiana is 7-2 in its last nine contests.
- The Pacers have hit the 4Q moneyline in 39 of their last 55 games.
- The Over is 7-3 in Indiana’s past 10 outings, and the hosts have scored 117+ points in six of their eight games in this postseason.
- Even with an Under in Game 3, the Cavs have still cashed the Over in six of their last eight outings.
Cavaliers vs Pacers trend
The Over is 56-33 for the Cavs this season, including the playoffs. Find more NBA betting trends for Cavaliers vs. Pacers.
How to watch Cavaliers vs Pacers
| Location | Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis, IN |
| Date | Sunday, 5-11-2025 |
| Tip-off | 8:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | TNT, truTV, max |
Cavaliers vs Pacers latest injuries
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