Despite missing several key receiving options, Baker Mayfield played a strong game in Week 6 and led the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to a win over the San Francisco 49ers.
My Buccaneers vs. Lions predictions expect Mayfield to shine again in Motor City, stregthening his stance in the MVP race.
Find out more in my NFL picks for this MNF showdown on October 20.
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Buccaneers vs Lions prediction
Buccaneers vs Lions Best bet: Baker Mayfield Over 241.5 passing yards (-110)
Let’s start with the key questions. As of Friday, Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin are doubtful for the Bucs, while Mike Evans and Emeka Egbuka are questionable with unclear workloads. Still, this is a 52.5-total indoor game, and Baker Mayfield has been building an MVP case no matter who lines up at receiver.
On the Detroit side, the secondary is a mess. SS Brian Branch is suspended, LCB Terrion Arnold is out, and FS Kerby Joseph is questionable—adding to six other DBs either on IR or already ruled out. That’s a brutal setup for a team facing a high-volume passing attack.
According to THE BLITZ, the Lions are more than a touchdown favorite Monday night, which points to a likely negative game script for Tampa—something the market hasn’t fully accounted for. Even last week, without Evans and limited time from Egbuka, Mayfield still threw for 256 yards on just 23 attempts—and was passing late in the fourth quarter with an 11-point lead.
Kameron Johnson and Tez Johnson both caught touchdowns, and with Irving likely out again, the Bucs’ run game remains a non-factor. Over the last four games, the only QB not to throw for 250+ yards against Detroit is Joe Flacco. And last season, no defense gave up more passing yards per game than the Lions (244.5).
The MVP campaign rolls on for Baker in prime time.
Buccaneers vs Lions MNF same-game parlay
It's another week of Rachaad White getting the No. 1 job, and because of his pass-catching skills, he is game-script proof and might actually have a bigger role in this game without some key receivers.
Sam LaPorta is coming off back-to-back Overs on this number and has found paydirt in back-to-back weeks. He might be option No. 3 in this offense, but the setting and total have me expecting a lot of big plays.
Buccaneers vs Lions SGP
- Baker Mayfield Over 240.5 passing yards
- Rachaad White anytime touchdown
- Sam LaPorta Over 48.5 receiving yards
Our big-ticket SGP: Defense optional
Kameron Johnson could be in line for WR2 snaps on Monday night, and depending on the health of Mike Evans, could be playing the most snaps of all TB wide receivers. I love his TD price at +425. He saw more targets on fewer routes last week than Tez Johnson.
Buccaneers vs Lions SGP
- Rachaad White anytime touchdown
- Kameron Johnson anytime touchdown
- Sam LaPorta anytime touchdown
Buccaneers vs Lions game predictions
Buccaneers vs Lions moneyline prediction
The +210 ML of the Bucs is tempting when considering the teams Detroit has beaten this year, which include the Bengals, Browns, Ravens, and Bears, with losses to the Packers and Chiefs. I'm not ready to put the Bucs in the same tier as the Chiefs, but they have been in every game this year, and Baker knows how to play in the fourth quarter.
Buccaneers vs Lions spread prediction
Both teams are 4-2 ATS entering Week 7, which has bounced between 4.5 and 5.5 since the lookahead last week. The Bucs are 2-1 ATS as a dog this year and are an ideal backdoor team, given how well they've performed late in games. The cluster absences of the Detroit secondary are a significant concern at -5.5. However, covering big numbers is something Detroit is used to. In the three games where they have been longer than a field goal, they are 3-0 ATS, covering by 10.5 points twice and 6.5 points.
Buccaneers vs Lions Over/Under prediction
This total was 53.5 on the lookahead, but has dropped a whole point, likely due to the injuries to the Tampa skill players. Combined, both teams are 7-5 O/U on the season. Tampa has seen a high total of 47.5 points last week in their 30-19 win vs the Niners, while the Lions hit the Over on the biggest total of the season back in Week 3 with a 38-30 victory over the Ravens with a closing total of 54. Even without Irving and possibly Egbuka, I'd be more inclined to hit the Over. Bucs win 31-30.
Buccaneers vs Lions odds
- Spread: Buccaneers +5.5 | Lions -5.5
- Moneyline: Buccaneers +210 | Lions -260
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Buccaneers vs Lions betting trend to know
Baker Mayfield is 9-2 ATS on the road as a Buc. Find more NFL betting trends for Buccaneers vs. Lions.
How to watch Buccaneers vs Lions
| Location | Ford Field, Detroit, MI |
| Date | Monday, October 20, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN or ABC |
Learn how to live stream Buccaneers vs. Lions for free.
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More Buccaneers vs Lions predictions for Monday Night Football
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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