Browns vs Raiders Picks, Predictions, and Best Bets: Fade Both Offenses in AFC Slogfest

With both Cleveland and Las Vegas struggling to move the chains, Kenny Ducey expects the defenses to thrive in Sunday's showdown in Sin City.

Kenny Ducey - Betting Analyst at Covers
Kenny Ducey • Betting Analyst
Sep 29, 2024 • 13:22 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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Maxx Crosby Las Vegas Raiders NFL
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Week 4 features an AFC tilt between the Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders at Allegiant Stadium. 

Both teams' offenses have been abysmal through three weeks, so my Browns vs. Raiders predictions are fading both units in my NFL picks for September 29, 2024.

Browns vs Raiders prediction

My best bet
Under 36.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

My analysis

Deshaun Watson continues to disappoint as a member of the Cleveland Browns. The former Pro Bowl quarterback grades out as the 23rd-best QB in the NFL according to Pro Football Focus, carrying a 59.9 passing grade into Sunday's matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders. 

It’s not as if the matchups have been unkind to Watson, either, with the Jaguars and Giants giving him fits over the last two weeks. In theory, a 1-2 Las Vegas Raiders team wouldn’t stand to bother him all that much, but they do still sit 17th in success rate allowed per dropback after ranking 11th last season.

Most of the personnel has returned for Las Vegas, and if it stays the course in the secondary, a talented group of pass-rushers should pick things back up against one of the offensive lines in football. 

The thing is, Gardner Minshew hasn’t been all that better — and with a couple more bad games, he may lose his hold on a starting job. Cleveland’s pass rush has been excellent, and as a result, it ranks 12th in success rate allowed per dropback.

Facing an even weaker offensive line that has turned to two rookies due to injuries and the struggles of Dylan Parham, things should remain bleak for the Raiders offense.

Browns vs Raiders same-game parlay

Under 36

Deshaun Watson Over 21.5 rushing yards

Gardner Minshew Over 0.5 interceptions

As we bet on a miserable game featuring little offense, we’ll have to get creative with our same-game parlay. It’ll start with Watson, whose arm has let him down with a 57.76% completion percentage through three games — including averaging just 4.8 yards per attempt.

With Las Vegas flaunting a defensive line that features Maxx Crosby and the Browns' O-line continuing to struggle, Watson will be bailing out of the pocket and turning to his legs. He’s rushed just about five times per game, gaining 6.07 yards per attempt and twice eclipsing this number. 

Meanwhile, Cleveland ranked in the Top 10 for interceptions per game last season and has already picked off two passes this year. Minshew’s thrown exactly one interception in each of his three starts, and he should be in danger of another on Sunday.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

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Browns vs Raiders odds

Browns vs Raiders live odds

Browns vs Raiders opening odds

  • Spread: Cleveland -1.5 | Las Vegas +1.5
  • Moneyline: Cleveland -115 | Las Vegas -105
  • Over/Under: Over 39.5 | Under 39.5

Odds courtesy of BetMGM

Browns vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis

  • After opening at -115 on the moneyline, bettors quickly corrected the market by flipping the Raiders around as underdogs. They would shoot back down to around -125 before jetting back in the other direction to settle at +115.
  • While 54% of the moneyline bets at DraftKings are on the Browns, they’ve accounted for 77% of the handle.
  • The total has steadily fallen from the opening number of 39.5, quickly dipping to 38.5 in the first hours of the betting window before hitting 36.5 on Saturday morning.
  • The Over has taken 56% of the tickets but just 30% of the cash.

Browns vs Raiders betting trend to know

Las Vegas has scored first in five of its last seven games (+4.90 Units / 62% ROI). Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Raiders.

Browns vs Raiders game info

Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV
Date: Sunday, 9-29, 2024
Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
TV: CBS

Browns vs Raiders latest injuries

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Kenny Ducey - Covers
Betting Analyst

Kenny Ducey has worked in sports media for more than 10 years and began his journey as a credentialed reporter with Fordham University's WFUV Sports before moving on to Sports Illustrated. There, he wrote about baseball, basketball, and tennis - twice covering the NBA Finals.

He's been in the betting space for seven years, and has established himself as a top expert in MLB and tennis handicapping with brands like Tennis Channel, NBC Sports, and DraftKings. He's also been a frequent guest on betting shows such as MLB's Bettor's Eye and Tennis Bets Live.

Kenny has a knack for identifying underappreciated pitchers and tennis players as moneyline underdogs and credits his unique data analysis and hours of watching sports as the biggest reasons for success through the years. His best advice to bettors? Watch the games, trust your eye, and always question the public narrative.

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