Browns vs Broncos Odds, Picks, and Predictions Week 12: Njoku Get Loose on Denver D

David Njoku could see plenty of looks on Sunday, and with Dorian Thompson-Robinson limited, our NFL picks think the Browns will want to stick to the script against the Broncos.

Nov 26, 2023 • 08:11 ET • 4 min read
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This article contains predictions for an old game!

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The Cleveland Browns head to Empower Field at Mile High to settle Week 12 odds against the Denver Broncos. After an ugly start to their season, the Broncos have won four games in a row while the Browns are 7-3 but could find it tough to keep winning after losing quarterback Deshaun Watson to a season-ending injury.

Oddsmakers are expecting a close, low-scoring game with NFL odds installing the Broncos as 1.5-point favorites with the Over/Under at just 34.5. Here are my best free NFL picks and predictions for Browns vs. Broncos on November 26.

Browns vs Broncos odds

Browns vs Broncos predictions

The Cleveland Browns are 7-3, which is pretty surprising since they've played virtually the entire season without All-Pro running back Nick Chubb while having Deshaun Watson for only half of those contests.

Watson is now done for the season with a shoulder injury and fifth-round rookie QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson is the man under center, leading them to a victory last week. Let's pump the brakes on praising him though since he completed just 55.8% of his passes for 165 yards with a meager 3.8 yards per attempt. 

Thompson-Robinson is an extremely limited passer, and with 44 completions on the year he's completed just four passes with a depth of 10 or more yards downfield. Short passes will probably be his bread and butter once again with Cleveland's best wide receiver Amari Cooper likely blanketed by shutdown corner Patrick Surtain. 

That should mean plenty of targets for Browns tight end David Njoku. Njoku had a whopping 15 targets from DTR last week and hauled in seven of them for 54 yards. He has now racked up more than 50 receiving yards in four of the last five weeks. He also had six catches for 46 yards when Thompson-Robinson previously started back in Week 4. 

Njoku also has a juicy matchup in this contest with the Broncos allowing a league-high 72.2 receiving yards per game against opposing tight ends. With Njoku's receiving yards total sitting at a modest 38.5, hammering the Over is a no-brainer here. 

My best bet: David Njoku Over 38.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)
Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.

Browns vs Broncos same-game parlay

David Njoku Over 38.5 receiving yards

Thompson-Robinson Under 174.5 passing yards

Broncos -1.5

While Njoku should be able to eclipse his meager receiving yards total, I'm not so confident in Thompson-Robinson going over his passing yards number. Keep in mind that in his two starts, he actually threw the ball a whopping 79 times due to game script but still had just 121 and 165 yards.

Taking the Over on Njoku's receiving yards and the Under on DTR's passing yards provides a nice multiplier for a parlay. 

It was Cleveland's defense that spearheaded that victory last week, and as fantastic as that stop unit has been they won't find the Broncos quite as easy as the Steelers. Denver's offense is trending in the right direction with Russell Wilson now third in the league in pass efficiency rating and the running game churning out yards on the ground. 

On the other side of the ball, Denver's defense has made massive strides from the beginning of the year when they looked historically bad. Since Week 6, the Broncos are 12th in the league in defensive EPA despite a pair of games against the Chiefs and another against the Bills. 

The Browns have a decent running attack, but if you can't throw you can't move the ball in the modern NFL. Thompson-Robinson's inability to stretch the defense will be exposed on the road in Denver and the Broncos should be able to cover the short spread. 

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Browns vs Broncos spread and Over/Under analysis

The lookahead line for this game had the Broncos at +2.5 with the total at 41, but after the news came out that Watson was done for the year, this line reopened with the Broncos at -1.5 and the O/U at 36. Early money came in on the Broncos and the Under, shifting those lines to -2.5 and 34.5, but both bets saw resistance on the other side and were back to -1.5 and 36 by Friday morning. 

The Browns edged the Steelers 13-10 last week and have gone 5-1 straight up and against the spread in their last six games. That said, it won't be easy for their offense to stay afloat with Thompson-Robinson at QB, especially with both starting offensive tackles and Chubb sidelined as well. 

It's also worth mentioning that while the Browns defense has been dominant at home, it has performed far worse on the road, allowing 6.9 yards per play over their last three away contests. 

The Broncos have gone 4-0 straight up and 3-1 against the spread in their last four games. Although they failed to cover the spread in last week's razor-thin victory against Minnesota, they left plenty of points on the field by going just 1-5 in the red zone. 

Browns vs Broncos betting trend to know

The Over is 5-0 in Cleveland's last five games away from home. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Broncos.

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Browns vs Broncos game info

Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Date: Sunday, November 26, 2023
Kickoff: 4:05 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Broncos -1.5, 36 O/U

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