Browns vs Bengals Week 14 Picks and Predictions: Burrow and Cincinnati Stay Hot

Cincinnati is enjoying another second-half surge, powered by Joe Burrow. The Bengals are riding a long losing skid against the Browns but our NFL betting picks like Burrow to shine vs. Cleveland.

Last Updated: Dec 11, 2022 8:14 AM ET Read Time: 4 min

AFC North showdowns are rarely short on drama – and there’s every reason to expect fireworks again in Week 14 as the in-form Cincinnati Bengals host the Cleveland Browns.

The Bengals (8-4) are starting to motor again after a sluggish start to the season and extended their win streak to four games by taking down Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs last weekend.

Meanwhile, Deshaun Watson looked rusty in his return from an 11-game suspension as the Browns (5-7) kept their slim playoff hopes alive with a win in Houston on Sunday. Cleveland will need much more from Watson to grab an upset here.

Check out our Browns vs. Bengals NFL picks and predictions for everything you need to know.

Browns vs Bengals best odds

Browns vs Bengals picks and predictions

Don’t look now, but these Bengals seem to have found their swagger again – and Joe Burrow is showing the same poise and killer instinct that led Cincinnati to the Super Bowl last season.

With the Bengals in the thick of a tight divisional race, Ja’Marr Chase’s return from a hip injury on Sunday was timely as he grabbed seven catches for 97 yards. Chase’s mere presence opens up the Cincinnati offense as defenses tilt towards his deep threat and, in turn, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, and Hayden Hurst (doubtful for Sunday) all have a little extra space to operate. 

This is a game vs. the Browns for Burrow to take over. The Cincinnati ground game was bottled up in the teams’ first meeting this season (finishing with just 36 total rushing yards) and, while I expect the hosts to get more traction running the ball on Sunday, it would be no surprise if the Bengals’ game plan skews more towards Burrow dropbacks. As long as the offensive line keeps multiple bodies on pocket-wrecker Myles Garrett, that feels like a winning formula.

Burrow was on the money against the Chiefs, with eight different players recording a reception. He had just six incompletions from his 31 pass attempts on the way to 286 yards and two touchdowns.  

That feels like a sustainable stat line given the offensive weapons around him, and I see the Bengals quarterback outdueling Deshaun Watson and having a big day in the passing game.

My best bet: Joe Burrow Over 277.5 passing yards (-110)

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Browns vs Bengals spread analysis

This matchup has been dominated by Cleveland in recent years – the Browns have won the last five meetings, including an upset in Week 8 when they thumped the Bengals 32-13. But it’s tough to see that streak continuing on Sunday. 

Back-to-back wins over the Chiefs and Titans – two of Cincinnati’s victims on the road to Super Bowl LVI – have propelled the Bengals towards the top tier of contenders in the AFC. It feels reasonable for the hosts to win this game by a touchdown.

Zac Taylor’s men have other numbers in their favor too. The Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven on field turf, and the Browns are 4-12 ATS over the past 16 meetings.

Taking the points with Cleveland means banking on Watson to deliver a sharper performance this weekend. Against the Texans, the rust was obvious as he completed 12 of 22 passes for 131 yards and an interception. It was the Browns’ defense and special teams that scored their three touchdowns and put them in the driver’s seat.

Browns vs Bengals Over/Under analysis

On the one hand, it’s daunting to wager on the Over after Cleveland’s offense contributed just two field goals in the 27-14 win in Houston. Will another week of practice really get Watson and his receivers more in sync?

As for the Bengals, their offense is Top 10 in points scored per game and Top 5 in passing yards. That spells trouble for a middling Browns pass defense, with Chase and Higgins stretching the field.

Joe Mixon, who missed the last two games due to a concussion, is expected to return on Sunday and share some of the backfield work with Samaje Perine, who has deputized expertly. That should help the Bengals’ chances of putting big points on the board.

The Over is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings and has hit in the last six meetings in Cincinnati.

Browns vs Bengals betting trend to know

The Bengals have run the show at Paycor Stadium this season, covering the spread in their last four home games. Find more NFL betting trends for Browns vs. Bengals.

Browns vs Bengals game info

Location: Paycor Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Date: Sunday, December 11, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
Opening odds: Bengals -4.5, 49 O/U

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