My Broncos vs. Chargers prediction calls for a shootout at SoFi Stadium, where two injury-ravaged AFC West rivals square off with Denver favored by 3.5 points.
With key defensive backs sidelined on both sides, I'm backing the Over 41.5 in a divisional showdown that could turn into a track meet. Kickoff is set for 4:05 p.m. ET today on CBS.
Here's why I'm expecting plenty of points in my latest NFL picks for Week 5.
TOP Pick
Broncos vs Chargers prediction: Over 41.5
Playable to 54%.
Both the Denver Broncos and Los Angeles Chargers could have a difficult time playing defense in Week 5.
Denver will be without both starting cornerbacks, Pat Surtain II and Riley Moss, both of whom exited last weekend’s game against San Francisco with injuries. Meanwhile, Los Angeles will be without star safety Derwin James and cornerback Donte Jackson.
Head coach Sean Payton will take over Denver’s play-calling duties today, which could lead to more downfield passing attempts. Bo Nix completed just two passes that traveled at least 10 air yards in Week 4, which presumably contributed to Davis Webb losing play-calling duties.
An improved Denver offense with Payton calling the shots should find success against an injury-plagued Los Angeles secondary. Justin Herbert & Co. will also benefit from Denver’s defensive injuries, setting the stage for a shootout.
COVERS INTEL: Brock Purdy went 9-for-10 passing on San Francisco’s final three offensive possessions in Week 4 after Denver lost both of its starting corners to injury. The Broncos could have a tough time slowing down the Chargers’ passing attack in Week 5.
Broncos vs Chargers combo
Playable to 36%.
Denver's offense has struggled mightily early in 2026, but many of those struggles are likely the result of Davis Webb's unimaginative play-calling. The Broncos scored on their opening possession 43% of the time from 2023 to 2025 with Sean Payton calling plays — a rate 10% higher than the league average. Denver failed to record a first down on any opening drive through four weeks with Webb calling plays to start 2026.
The Chargers' starting offensive line in Week 5 is likely to feature three rookies and an undrafted free agent, none of whom had played a regular-season snap before being forced into action in Week 4 against the Seahawks.
The Broncos have the better head coach and are the healthier team heading into today's game. Their defense might not be at full strength, but their offense should be able to score enough points to win this game.
Broncos vs Chargers combo
- Broncos moneyline
- Over 41.5
Broncos vs Chargers touchdown scorer: Tre Harris
Playable to 25%.
Tre Harris figures to be a focal point in the Chargers' passing attack in Week 5, with Quentin Johnston already ruled out and Ladd McConkey listed as questionable due to a foot injury that forced him to exit last weekend's game early.
Harris played 66 snaps in Week 4 — the most of any Chargers skill-position player. He had four first-read targets, which was more than any other wideout on the team, and that was with Johnston playing 53 snaps.
Harris is a big target at 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, making him a great target in the red zone against the diminutive starting cornerback combination of Jahdae Barron and Kris Abrams-Draine, both of whom are 5-foot-11.
Broncos vs Chargers player prop: Justin Herbert 19+ passing completions
Playable to 52%.
Justin Herbert is going to have to get the ball out of his hands quickly today against the Broncos. Fortunately, he has an offensive coordinator in Mike McDaniel who has vast experience designing game plans to protect his quarterback when the offensive line isn’t healthy.
The Chargers will be without starting left tackle Rashawn Slater, starting right tackle Joe Alt, and starting center Tyler Biadasz in Week 5. They’ll also be down to their fourth-string left guard after injuries to Kayode Awosika and Trevor Penning.
Herbert completed 14 of 17 pass attempts in the second half of Week 4 against the Seahawks, playing behind a makeshift offensive line that had been ravaged by injuries. Expect McDaniel to prioritize getting the ball out fast, especially against a Denver pass rush that ranks 10th in pressure rate this season.
Want more NFL player props? Check out our NFL player prop projections!
- Top picks: 1-2, -1.00 units
- Combos: 1-2, +1.17 units
Broncos vs Chargers odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Broncos -3.5 | Chargers +3.5
- Over/Under: Over 41.5 (52%) | Under 41.5 (49%)
- Moneyline: Broncos 64% | Chargers 38%
For the full slate of NFL matchups, check out our NFL odds board!
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Broncos vs Chargers weather
This game is being played under the covered roof at SoFi Stadium.
Check out our NFL weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Broncos vs Chargers trend to know
The Over is 4-0 in the Chargers' last four games in October. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Chargers.
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How to watch Broncos vs Chargers
| Location | SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, CA |
| Date | Sunday, Oct. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 4:05 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
Broncos vs Chargers latest injuries
Check out our NFL injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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