Broncos vs Bills Preseason Picks and Predictions: An MVP Candidate in August Football

Buffalo opened the week as 1-point NFL betting underdogs... and then it was announced Josh Allen would play. Now 6-point favorites against the Broncos, our picks expect Allen's Bills to roll right through Denver's defense.

Last Updated: Aug 20, 2022 10:33 AM ET Read Time: 4 min
Josh Allen Buffalo Bills NFL
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In today's matinee, the Broncos travel to Buffalo to face the Bills. Preseason is always one of the toughest times to bet, but this game features two teams who got off to winning starts last week, and it should be entertaining, with plenty of opportunities to find a cash or two.

For this game, you need to read our NFL picks and predictions for the Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills.

Broncos vs Bills odds

This odds widget represents the best odds available for each betting market from regulated sportsbooks.

The total points have moved two, having opened at 40 and risen to 42. However, we’ve seen a seven-point swing on the spread, with the Bills moving from one-point dogs to six-point favorites. 

Use the live odds widget above to track any future line movements right up until kickoff and be sure to check out the full NFL odds before placing your bets.

Broncos vs Bills predictions

Predictions made on 8/19/2022 at 11:00 a.m. ET.
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.

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Broncos vs Bills game info

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, NY
Date: Saturday, August 20, 2022
Kickoff: 1:00 p.m. ET
TV: NFL Network

Broncos at Bills betting preview

Weather

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Key injuries

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Betting trend to know

Sean McDermott is 11-5 in preseason as a head coach. Find more NFL betting trends for Broncos vs. Bills.

Broncos vs Bills picks and predictions

Our side and total predictions are based upon our analysis of the line and total in this game. Our best bet is our favorite pick across all markets.

Spread analysis

Both teams come into this game 1-0 in the preseason, with the Broncos beating the Cowboys 17-7, and the Bills coming from behind to beat the Colts 27-24 and maintaining Sean McDermott’s great record in the preseason.

The Broncos played well against the Cowboys, with their defense, in particular, doing a great job of locking up their opposition. We didn’t see anything from Russell Wilson, with Josh Johnson and Brett Rypien under center, and he wasn’t the only big name missing with none of their offensive starters being involved. 

Those backups will have to do it all over again this week, with Nathaniel Hackett confirming that Wilson won’t see the field until Week 1 of the regular season. It's also expected that the rest of the key starters will also not see the field.

That is in stark contrast to the Bills, with McDermott saying that the starters will play a “healthy amount” on Saturday. That’s huge news when it comes to deciding the outcome of this game and explains why the line moved the Bills from being one-point dogs to six-point favorites.

We didn’t see anything from Josh Allen or the Bills leading wideouts against the Cowboys, with Matt Barkley and Case Keenum sharing the QB reps. If, as we are led to believe, Allen and the starters get anything near a whole half of football against a second-string Broncos team, then it’s fair to think that they destroy them and easily cover the spread. 

It’s always hard to totally trust a head coach in preseason, but there’s no reason to expect anything other than a reasonable amount of Allen on Saturday afternoon. 

Prediction: Bills -6.0 (-110 at bet365)

Over/Under analysis

Throughout the first week in preseason, we saw how regularly the Over landed, and it’s clear that there's been a sharp recalibration when you look at the totals across all sportsbooks this week. 

Ordinarily, that would lead me to suggest taking the Under, but when there’s a likelihood of seeing Josh Allen for a minimum of one quarter, against a second-string Broncos defense, you have to reconsider. No matter how much talent they have across the defensive depth chart in Denver, the Broncos will struggle to stop Allen from leading the team to points.

For that reason, combined with a reasonable performance offensively for the Broncos last week, I’d lean on taking the Over here.

Prediction: Over 41.5 (-105 at DraftKings)

Best bet

It won’t be a surprise to see where I’m going with the best bet for the Broncos at Bills. We know that we’ll see some of the Bills' first-string, while we won’t for the Broncos. That alone is enough evidence for me to suggest that the Bills should cover fairly easily.

Combine that with Sean McDermott’s brilliant preseason record as a head coach, having gone 11-5, and you have a bet which feels like the safest NFL preseason bet on Saturday.

PickBills -6.0 (-110 at bet365)

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