The Denver Broncos are having a tough time living up to the hype, and Bo Nix has to take a chunk of the blame as he works through a classic case of sophomore struggles.
After finishing with 29 touchdown passes and 12 interceptions as a rookie, Nix has already tossed three picks this year. Still, he’s walking into a great bounce-back spot on MNF against a Cincinnati Bengals defense that gave up 48 points to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 3.
I’ve weighed up the Bo Nix odds, prop bets, and NFL picks for this Monday, September 29, matchup, and this feels like a chance for Sean Payton to take some of the pressure off his quarterback’s shoulders.
Bo Nix prop pick
Bo Nix best bet: Under 31.5 pass attempts (-125 at bet365)
Bo Nix surpassed expectations as a rookie by a wide margin, but the bar may have been raised too high, too soon for Year 2. While the Denver Broncos may still emerge as a Super Bowl threat, it’s time to pump the brakes on this offense’s ceiling.
Sean Payton has said all the right things about Nix’s performances this year, particularly around some of the near misses on overthrows. Even so, the Broncos would surely love to ask a little less of their QB – and this MNF clash against the Cincinnati Bengals sets up nicely to do so.
The Bengals have allowed 30.3 PPG, tied for sixth-most in the league, and I expect Denver to mix in a heavy dose of J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey in the ground game here, freeing up Nix to pick his spots against favorable matchups.
That leads me to the Under on Nix’s passing attempts. He’s fallen short of this 31.5 number in his last two outings, including a 14-for-25 line last week against the Chargers, and the game script is unlikely to call for gunslinging heroics.
I don’t see the Broncos playing from behind in this contest, especially after what we saw from Jake Browning and the Bengals in Week 3, and that will limit what Nix needs to do as a passer.
Bo Nix same-game parlay
Bo Nix Under 31.5 pass attempts
Bo Nix Over 19.5 rush yards
J.K. Dobbins anytime TD
Nix is an underrated scrambler, and he provided a reminder last weekend with eight carries for 33 yards. He’s picked up 20+ rushing yards in six of his last seven contests, and he won’t hesitate to take off if Trey Hendrickson and this Bengals front seven collapse the pocket. Nix ended up with 31 rushing yards against Cincinnati last season.
The Broncos need to find more touches for Dobbins, who’s found the end zone in all three games this season and should continue to get goal-line work. After only tallying 11 carries in Week 3, I expect an uptick in usage for him, and I’ll take his anytime TD prop to wrap up my SGP.
Bet on MNF at bet365!
Your Monday Night Football bets are never ordinary at bet365! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you get $200 in bonus bets — win or lose!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
