A couple of teams making a nice push towards the playoffs will get after it on Thursday Night Football with the Buffalo Bills in Houston to take on the Texans.
After dropping a season-high 44 points on the Buccaneers in Week 11, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites. The game total is 43.5.
My early Bills vs. Texans predictions have the home team keeping it close, while I think we might be in for another primetime snooze-fest.
Check out my early NFL picks for Thursday, November 20.
Bills vs Texans predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early TNF spread pick: Texans +5.5
I think the Houston Texans can keep this thing tight on Thursday night and cover as a 5.5-point home dog.
For all the hype around the Buffalo Bills off last week’s scoring outburst vs. Tampa Bay, they still haven’t faced an elite defense this season, and that’s exactly what they’re walking into. The Texans rank Top 3 in points allowed, yards per play allowed, and opponent third-down conversion percentage, which presents a difficult matchup for any offense, especially one travelling on a short week.
Buffalo’s play on the road has been spotty lately, as they’ve been caught playing down to the competition. They’ve dropped outright decisions in Miami and Atlanta, and now they get a short-week road trip to Houston vs. a Texans team that’s quietly been playing its best football of the year.
The Texans have won three of their last four, and while it hasn’t been pretty, winning ugly is still a good quality to have in the NFL.
Short weeks this late in the season tend to favor the home side, and we actually saw this matchup last year where Houston didn’t just win, they outgained the Bills by 149 yards.
I’m expecting Davis Mills to get the start with C.J. Stroud still in concussion protocol as of Monday. It’s a downgrade, sure, but that's reflected in the spread, and Mills’ numbers aren’t as far off as you might think.
Early TNF total pick: Under 43.5
Houston’s elite defense has me leaning heavily towards the Under on Thursday night. They’re allowing a league-low 16.3 points per game, which has resulted in their games having an average combined score of just 38.3.
Limiting Josh Allen and this offense will be a tall task, but we’ve seen the Texans defense check respectable offenses this season, holding the Rams to 14 points and the Buccaneers to 20.
There’s quite a bit of contrast on the offensive side of the ball for Houston, however. They rank in the bottom third in many important offensive categories. Most notably, they rank 26th on third down and 31st in the red zone.
This could be a great opportunity for Sean McDermott to get things right with his defense that’s allowed 62 points in the last two games. We’ve seen them bully some bad teams this season, holding the Jets to 10 points, the Saints to 19, and the Panthers to nine.
It wouldn’t be a shock to see a similar result vs. this Texans offense that limped to a pathetic 16 points vs. the Titans last week.
Bills vs Texans odds
- Bills vs. Texans spread: Texans +5.5
- Bills vs. Texans moneyline: Bills -250, Texans +205
- Bills vs. Texans Over/Under: 43.5
How to watch Bills vs Texans
- Bills vs. Texans matchup
- Date: Thursday, November 20, 2025, 8:15 p.m. ET
- City: Houston, TX
- Venue: NRG Stadium
- TV: Prime Video
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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