The Los Angeles Lakers came through with a clutch victory in Game 3 to take a commanding 3-0 lead, and the Houston Rockets will look to stave off elimination when they host Game 4 at Toyota Center on Sunday.
Marcus Smart has been excellent this postseason, and my Lakers vs. Rockets predictions call for him to keep the momentum going as LA sweeps and advances to the Western Conference semifinals.
Here are my best free NBA picks for Sunday’s Game 4.
Lakers vs Rockets prediction
Lakers vs Rockets best bet: Marcus Smart Over 16.5 points+assists (-110)
Marcus Smart has played tremendously well since returning from a nine-game absence. He logged 18 minutes off the bench in his return, and he’s started four straight games dating back to the season finale.
Smart has been instrumental in the Los Angeles Lakers’ postseason success, and I expect that to continue in Game 4.
Through the first three games of the series, Smart has averaged 28.6 points+assists while logging 36 minutes per game. His usage has increased from 15.1 in the regular season to 23.5 in the postseason.
He finished with 23 points+assists in Game 1 and followed it up with 32 and 31 in Games 2 and 3, respectively.
Smart was instrumental in the Game 3 come-from-behind victory, stealing the ball and knocking down three free throws to cut the lead to three, eventually leading to a LeBron James game-tying triple in the final seconds of regulation.
The Houston Rockets' defense has been poor and undisciplined in the postseason. The Rockets have surrendered the third-most free-throw attempts (28.7), third-most assists (26), and the highest three-point percentage (46.1).
Houston’s 110.3 defensive rating ranks 10th, and the team has allowed the eighth-most points (106.7).
Smart has averaged 8.3 assists and knocked down 8-of-16 triples through the first three games of the series, and the matchup with Houston sets him up favorably to have another successful performance as a scorer and facilitator.
Lakers vs Rockets same-game parlay
The Rockets are in total disarray after squandering a late lead in Friday’s Game 3. The Lakers could take their foot off the gas and wrap up the series at home in Game 5, but getting James some rest would be ideal.
I expect the Lakers to put the final nail in the coffin of a highly dysfunctional Rockets season.
The Under has hit in four of six head-to-head matchups between these two teams, but I fully expect the Lakers to take care of business in this one and put up more than enough points to push this one to the Over.
After Friday’s 220-point total, the number has moved up just two points to 207.5, making it a value selection.
Lakers vs Rockets SGP
- Marcus Smart Over 16.5 points+assists
- Lakers +5.5
- Over 207.5
Our "from downtown" SGP: Team Effort!
It’s time to put the Rockets out of their misery and wrap up the series early. The Lakers will surely value rest for the players who fought through the series while they anxiously anticipate the return of Austin Reaves and Luka Doncic.
Father Time's undefeated record is certainly in question, as LeBron James’ fingerprints are all over this series. King James has hit the Over on this line in three straight, and he ended the regular season with 40+ PRA in three of four contests.
James knows what it takes to close the series out, and I expect another big game.
Rui Hachimura finished Friday’s win with 22 points, and he’ll look to build on that performance in Game 4. Hachimura has started eight straight games, averaging 16.5 points along the way. He’s scored 15+ in four of those eight.
Like Rui, Luke Kennard has started eight straight games. In that span, he’s averaged 15.6 points and scored 13+ six times. Kennard has really come alive in the playoffs, averaging 21.3 points across the first three games of the series.
Lakers vs Rockets SGP
- Lakers moneyline
- LeBron James Over 39.5 points+rebounds+assists
- Marcus Smart Over 16.5 points+assists
- Rui Hachimura Over 14.5 points
- Luke Kennard Over 12.5 points
Lakers vs Rockets odds for Game 4
- Spread: Lakers +5.5 (-115) | Rockets -5.5 (-105)
- Moneyline: Lakers +160 | Rockets -190
- Over/Under: Over 207.5 | Under 207.5
Lakers vs Rockets betting trend to know
The Los Angeles Lakers have hit the Moneyline in 32 of their last 45 games (+19.60 Units / 17% ROI). Find more NBA betting trends for Lakers vs. Rockets.
How to watch Lakers vs Rockets Game 4
| Location | Toyota Center, Houston, TX |
| Date | Sunday, April 26, 2026 |
| Tip-off | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | NBC |
Lakers vs Rockets latest injuries
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