Thursday turkey time concludes with the inconsistent Buffalo Bills heading to the Caesars Superdome to take on the New Orleans Saints and their replacement-level offense as 6-point favorites with a total of 45.5.
Can the Bills’ offense find its mojo against the New Orleans pass defense? Can Sean Payton get any production out of a possible combination of Trevor Siemian and Taysom Hill? Find out in our free props and predictions for Bills vs. Saints.
Bills vs Saints prop picks
- Allen Over 32.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Hill anytime TD (+550) and Jones anytime TD (+400)
- Diggs Over 79.5 receiving yard (-110)
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Bills vs Saints Thanksgiving Day props
Miles per Allen
The Bills head into New Orleans as 6-point favorites after opening up at -4.5 and face one of the worst offenses in the league in the Saints. Alvin Kamara and Adam Trautman are out and this has quickly become a motley crew. Josh Allen and the Buffalo offense should dominate time of possession, which means plenty of plays for Buffalo, who sits eighth in the league in plays per game.
Allen hasn’t tossed more than two touchdowns in four straight games and with the Bills likely not having much success with their backfield versus the Saints’ No. 3 rush defense, Allen might have to pick up the yards on his own.
Coach Sean McDermott has stressed ball possession as Allen has thrown five picks over the last three games, and it’s time for Buffalo to get back to what was working: Allen's underutilized legs.
Allen has just 21 rushing yards over his last two games, but the Bills QB topped 50 yards in three of four before that. His rushing total opened at 32.5 yards, which sits under his season average of 34.5. The Saints got gouged on the ground by Jalen Hurts last week as the Philadelphia QB totaled three rushing TDs and 69 yards.
Playing under the bright lights of Turkey time is nothing new to Allen, who beat the Cowboys on the road two seasons ago and finished with 43 rushing yards and a TD.
PICK: Josh Allen Over 32.5 rushing yards (-110 at FanDuel)
Jones Hill Academy
Alvin Kamara is out and Mark Ingram is questionable with a DNP at practice Tuesday. It’s a shame as the Bills rush defense is going through some things. But QB Trevor Siemian is on the ropes and coach Sean Payton has suggested Taysom Hill could see some action as long as his foot is 100 percent. There were some whispers that Hill could actually get the start.
There isn’t much to like about this offense that faced a ton of Philly DBs last week. The Eagles went small and fast versus the Saints, who have no threats to speak of anywhere on the field. If Hill is healthy and gets his snaps, he’s a great runner and could possibly be the best weapon they have. Hill's rushing yards aren’t open but he’s paying +550 to score a TD against a defense that gave up four rushing TDs last week.
Even if Hill doesn’t get any snaps between the 20s, we could see him come in the red zone where he immediately becomes a scoring threat. This is a speculative play as the team’s QB situation is still up in the air, but if we’re gambling on this offense, we’re taking big odds and laying down 0.55 units to win three. They didn’t pay this man big money to watch football.
Additionally, Tony Jones Jr. is likely the next man up in the NOLA backfield and some books have been slow to move his TD line, which is +375 at BetMGM and +400 at FanDuel while some books have it as low as +187. We’d put half a unit on that +400 and wouldn't want to invest any more into this Saints offense.
Diggs your own hole
Stefon Diggs leads Buffalo pass catchers in target share (0.26), air yard share (0.30), targets (28), and YAC (109). Diggs’ receiving total has dipped to 79.5 yards after opening at 81.5 yards. Josh Allen’s No. 1 receiver is coming off his worst production of the season with a 23-yard outing, but Diggs is too good to throw up duds in back-to-back weeks. And with elite playmakers, more times than not, we always see teams getting them more involved after a poor performance.
The Bills can’t run the ball of late and both running backs have rushing totals below 25 yards. The Saints have the No. 3 success rate against the run so if Buffalo is going to stack yards, it will likely be through the air where the Saints allow a league-high 361 passing yards per game at home.
Saints CB Marshon Lattimore ranks 56th out of 117 in coverage and CB Paulson Adebo is a third-round rookie who has allowed 30 catches on 46 targets and ranks 102nd in coverage. P.J Williams is the team’s best coverage back, but he has played the majority of snaps in the slot.
Give us Diggs to help get this offense back on track in a great matchup. We wouldn’t usually take a top-end WR for a heavy favorite, but Buffalo’s lack of a running game combined with the Saints’ rush defense has us deviating from that plan.
PICK: Stefon Diggs Over 79.5 receiving yards (-110 at bet365)