The Buffalo Bills can’t be blinded by the sun, surf, and sand in South Beach in Week 10, nor can they risk a letdown spot on Sunday.
Buffalo is coming down from a huge high after beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 9 and now travels to face the division rival Miami Dolphins. The Fins have had a mini-bye to lick their wounds after getting squashed last Thursday and are set as hefty home dogs.
Here are my early Bills vs. Dolphins leans and NFL picks for Sunday, November 9.
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Bills vs Dolphins predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Bills vs Dolphins spread pick: Dolphins +9.5
I’m not rushing to bet on the Miami Dolphins and all these points, but with the market moving away from the Buffalo Bills (some books as low as -8), I see the value in the home side.
However, this Dolphins squad could look a little different by the time this 1 p.m. ET kickoff rolls around.
The trade deadline is Tuesday, and rumors are swirling around some key Miami players. The Dolphins’ 2025 campaign is a lost cause, and coach Mike McDaniel likely won’t be back next year, so the front office could start the rebuild as soon as this week.
The Bills are ripe for a letdown after the vengeful win over Kansas City, and with Tampa Bay coming to Orchard Park in Week 11, Buffalo could keep it simple against a terrible Miami defense. That means plenty of handoffs and drawn-out possessions, with the Bills chewing up the clock.
Covering a spread this big normally requires some fireworks — especially on the road — so I’ll lean Miami +9.5, but it’s not my favorite wager.
Early Bills vs Dolphins total pick: Under 49.5
This total opened at 50.5, and some sportsbooks have dropped to 49.5 O/U on Monday morning.
I agree with that initial opinion on the Under, knowing Buffalo should go run-heavy and keep plenty of its playbook in Joe Brady’s pocket in Week 10. The Bills are the best TOP team in the league, and that methodical approach has helped the Under hit in three of the last four games.
As for the Dolphins, this offense has sputtered in recent weeks. Outside of a 34-point game versus Atlanta, the Fins managed just six points in both losses to Baltimore and Cleveland. The Bills limited Miami to 21 points and 4.7 yards per play back in Week 3’s 31-21 home victory.
Also working against these teams (more Buffalo) is the possibility of extreme heat and humidity in Miami. The extended forecast calls for humidity around 70%, which makes temperatures feel like 100 degrees on Sunday afternoon. Hard Rock Stadium also forces the visiting sideline into full sun for 1 p.m. ET kickoffs, so Buffalo could be a little gassed by the second half.
Bills vs Dolphins odds
- Bills vs. Dolphins spread: Dolphins +9.5
- Bills vs. Dolphins moneyline: Bills -520, Dolphins +400
- Bills vs. Dolphins Over/Under: 49.5
How to watch Bills vs Dolphins
- Bills vs. Dolphins matchup
- Date: Sunday, November 9, 2025, 1:00 p.m. ET
- City: Miami Gardens, FL
- Venue: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: CBS
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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