The Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos meet at Empower Field at Mile High for an AFC Divisional Round showdown on Saturday afternoon with a trip to the Championship Round at stake.
If you're looking to make Bills vs. Broncos predictions and don't have access to a sportsbook, then prediction markets like Kalshi are for you!
From spreads and totals to player props, there's a whole slew of NFL picks to be made at Kalshi.
Bills vs Broncos predictions
| Result | |
|---|---|
| Bills to win | Trade at Kalshi |
| Broncos -1.5 — NO | Trade at Kalshi |
| Over 46.5 — NO | Trade at Kalshi |
| Josh Allen to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
| RJ Harvey to score a TD | Trade at Kalshi |
Who will win Bills vs Broncos at prediction markets?
Our prediction: Bills to win
Rohit Ponnaiya believes the Bills will beat the Broncos handily.
"With Denver's inept ground game unable to take advantage of Buffalo's soft run D, Josh Allen should will his team to victory. Last year's NFL MVP has racked up 41 rushing touchdowns over the last three seasons and has proven that he can air it out despite a mediocre WR corps."
See more of Rohit's analysis in his Bills vs. Broncos predictions.
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Bills vs Broncos props at prediction markets
Beyond the winner of the game, there are several other markets available for Bills vs. Broncos at Kalshi, including the spread, total, and team total for the game, plus player touchdown props and quarterback passing markets.
Explain how you can buy either side of a market — for example, "Yes" on Denver -1.5 means the Broncos will cover, while "No" on Denver -1.5 means the Bills will cover — with each side priced based on the implied probability (which can be converted to American, Decimal, or Fraction odds using the Covers odds converter)
Bills vs Broncos spread and total at prediction markets
| Outcome | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos -1.5 | 54¢ (-104) | 47¢ (-118) |
| Over 46.5 | 55¢ (-102) | 46¢ (-120) |
Our predictions: Broncos -1.5 (NO) and Over 46.5 (NO)
With the Bills' biggest weakness being their run defense, the Broncos offense won't capitalize as our Bills vs. Broncos predictions believe Buffalo should win here.
"Since losing RB J.K. Dobbins to an injury in Week 10, Denver ranks 25th in rush EPA with R.J. Harvey churning out just 3.4 yards per carry. Bo Nix will have an even tougher time throwing against a Bills defense that holds foes to 159.6 passing yards per game and 5.8 ypa."
There are also alternate spreads and totals to consider at Kalshi.
Bills vs Broncos touchdown props at prediction markets
| Player | Anytime TD | First TD |
|---|---|---|
 RJ Harvey |
54¢ (-135) | 16¢ (+500) |
 James Cook |
51¢ (-110) | 14¢ (+600) |
| Josh Allen |
51¢ (-110) | 13¢ (+650) |
| Courtland Sutton |
33¢ (+200) | 8¢ (+1000) |
| Khalil Shakir |
29¢ (+230) | 7¢ (+1200) |
| Dalton Kincaid |
26¢ (+300) | 6¢ (+1600) |
| Troy Franklin |
23¢ (+320) | 6¢ (+1600) |
| Bo Nix |
23¢ (+320) | 6¢ (+1600) |
Our predictions: Josh Allen and RJ Harvey
Jason Ence's Bills vs. Broncos anytime touchdown picks believe that Josh Allen will keep doing what he’s always done for the Buffalo Bills amid his receiving corps being depleted by injuries.
On Denver's side with J.K. Dobbins still sidelined, RJ Harvey has seen a significant uptick in usage over the past six games, particularly in the passing game. That expanded role has paid off, as he’s scored in five of those six contests, finding the end zone six times in total.
Don't forget to check out Kalshi's first TD and multi TD props!
Other Bills vs Broncos props available at prediction markets
What is Kalshi and how does it work?
Kalshi is a federally regulated U.S. exchange where you trade directly on the outcome of real-world future events. Instead of traditional bets, you trade "Event Contracts" which are simple Yes/No questions like "Will the Eagles win this Sunday?" These events are priced between $0.01 and $0.99, and the prices reflect the market’s estimated probability of that event occurring. For instance, $0.55 equals a 55% chance. If your prediction is correct, the contract pays out exactly $1.00; if not, it settles at $0. Kalshi is essentially a stock market for reality.
How does Kalshi differ from sportsbooks?
In a sportsbook, you bet against the bookmaker, who sets fixed odds and takes a "vig," which is a kind of commission. On Kalshi, you trade against other users. This peer-to-peer model means prices are driven by supply and demand, often resulting in fairer odds. Additionally, because these are financial derivatives, you can exit your position early. If your team takes a 14-point lead, the contract price will rise, allowing you to sell your "Yes" shares for a profit before the final whistle even blows.
Why should I wager on Bills vs Broncos at Kalshi?
Kalshi offers four unique advantages over traditional sportsbooks:
- Flexibility: Unlike a "locked-in" bet, you can sell your contract at any time.
- Transparency: You trade against other users, which can allow you to find better value.
- Federal regulation: As a CFTC-regulated exchange, your funds are held in a secure, transparent environment.
- Availability: Kalshi is available in many regions where traditional sportsbooks aren't yet legal.
