Josh Allen is coming off an MVP season, but the Bills don't utilize a pass-heavy approach from their superstar quarterback. My NFL picks are betting on that to continue in a favorable matchup for Buffalo this week.
Here are my favorite NFL player props for Week 8.
NFL Week 8 prop picks
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Jaxson Dart |
Over 37.5 rush yards | -114 |
 Josh Allen |
Under 30.5 pass attempts | -125 |
 Jaylen Warren |
Under 56.5 rush yards | -114 |
Best Bets and NFL Player Props for Week 8
Prop pick: Jaxson Dart Over 37.5 rush yards
We faded Jaxson Dart on his rushing yards total last week and got ourselves an easy winner as he finished with just 11 yards on five carries. However, that bet was due to the Broncos having an elite defense that has held quarterbacks to just 57 rushing yards on 25 carries.
This week the New York Giants pivot faces a Philadelphia Eagles defense that has given up the fifth-most rushing yards to quarterbacks (190). Philly allows the fifth-most scrambles in the league (19) while surrendering a whopping 9.1 yards per rush on those attempts.
Prior to last week's game in Denver, Dart had rushed for more than 50 yards in all three of his previous starts. New York's awful receivers will have a tough time gaining separation against a strong Eagles pass defense. That will force Dart out of the pocket as he tries to make plays with his legs.
Prop pick: Josh Allen Under 30.5 pass attempts
Josh Allen has thrown fewer than 30.5 passes in four of his last five contests, averaging 26.4 pass attempts per game over that span. The one contest during that span where he went Over this number, he threw a modest 31 passes in a loss to the Patriots.
Allen and the Buffalo Bills are 7.5-point favorites this week since they are fresh off a bye and face a Carolina Panthers squad that is likely missing QB Bryce Young.
Buffalo's offense plays at the second-slowest pace in the NFL (slowest pace in neutral game situations) and ranks 31st in pass play percentage. We'll likely see a positive game script for the Bills, which will lead to a sluggish tempo and a run-heavy gameplan.
Prop pick: Jaylen Warren Under 56.5 rush yards
Pittsburgh Steelers RB Jaylen Warren exploded for 127 yards on 16 carries last week, but this is a sell-high spot for his stock. Keep in mind that he faced Cincinnati's brutal run defense last week and piled up a whopping 63 rush yards over expected.
Prior to last week, Warren had rushed for 52 yards or fewer in all four of his games this season. He averaged just 3.4 yards per carry in those four contests while posting -3 rush yards over expected.
This week he faces a Green Bay Packers stop unit that has been stout against the run. The Packers are allowing the second-fewest rushing yards per game (76.5) while ranking fourth in yards allowed per carry (3.5).
Warren has been most effective on outside zone runs but Green Bay allows a league-low 2.4 yards per rush on those plays.
NFL Week 8 prop betting card
- Dart o37.5 rush yards (-114)
- Allen u30.5 pass attempts (-125)
- Warren u56.5 rush yards (-114)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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