The big dogs are back on the field after a week of rest as the NFL Divisional Round kicks off this Saturday.
We’ve hit the books hard this week, looking into every NFL market in search of value and great numbers—so you don't have to!
Today, we’re keying in on the Browns vs. Chiefs and taking a pair of Mahomes props and hoping the Browns do what they do best..
We break down the best NFL team and player props and bring you our favorite free picks and predictions for the Divisional Round weekend.
Year to date record: 167-137 (55%)
NFL Prop Picks for Sunday
Popping a Chubb
The Browns’ road to success is keeping Patrick Mahomes off the field. Sporting one of the league’s best offensive lines and run games could go a long way in accomplishing this strategy. Cleveland will also get All-Pro G Joel Bitonio back after he missed the Wild Card game due to COVID-19.
The Browns ran for just 4.1 yards per carry against the Steelers, but with the game hitting 28-0 early, it was anything but typical. Kansas City may be one of the best teams in the league, but its rush defense ranked 31st out 32 teams, per Football Outsiders.
Nick Chubb has run for at least 80 yards in seven of his last nine games and has been getting some work in the passing game, with nine grabs for 107 yards and a score in his last three.
Taking a running back’s rushing total as a 10-point underdog is not usually advised. However, the Chiefs are giving up nearly 50 receiving yards to opposing backs per game and Chubb is getting some more looks in the passing game. We're looking at a total yards play instead of rushing, in case Cleveland needs to abandon the run.
PREDICTION: Nick Chubb Over 88.5 total (rec and rush) yards (-115)
Bullying Browns’ Backend
The Browns surrendered 20 TDs to opposing WRs and another 10 to TEs this year. The Jets threw for three TDs vs the Browns in Week 16 and Mason Rudolph tossed a pair with the No. 2s in Week 17.
The Chiefs finished third in the league in pass attempts per game and Mahomes tossed 19 TDs at Arrowhead Stadium this year in seven games. In last year’s Divisional game (coming off the bye), the KC QB tossed five touchdowns.
PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs (+100)
Great players just do great things in big games, and that is true in the case of Mahomes. Over his five career playoff games, the QB has averaged 30.5 rushing yards per game. He’s coming off nearly three weeks of rest and should have some pep in his step.
Only two other teams allowed more QB rushing yards than the Browns this season, as opposing signal-callers scampered for 24 yards per game. Sam Darnold ran for 20 yards in Week 16 and Lamar Jackson rushed for 124 yards in Week 14 against the Cleveland defense. Athletic QBs can pick up chunks on the ground versus the Browns.
Mahomes has rushed for at least 16 yards in five of his last six games and could find some running room if he can make Cleveland’s Myles Garrett miss.
PREDICTION: Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 rushing yards (-120)
Kelce has led the Chiefs in receiving over his last four starts and has had a reception of 28 yards or longer in three of those games. There isn’t much value in his TD prop (-200) but there’s plenty of meat on the bone in one of his other markets.
Our favorite Kelce prop is Over 23.5 yards for his longest reception. Kelce has the ability to take short passes and drag defenders for extra yards, or just haul in bombs down the seam.
As mentioned above, the TE has cashed this prop in three of his last four, and Cleveland has been known to give up deep passes. The Browns gave up three passes of 27 yards or longer last week, and another five in the previous two games.
Kelce had grabs of 28, 25 and 23 yards and drew two deep pass interference calls in last year’s divisional game. With his TD (-200), reception (7.5) and receiving yard (90.5) props a little on the high side, we are taking a stab that the TE can take one for a long gain.
PREDICTION: Travis Kelce longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-115)
NFL Prop Picks for Saturday
The Bucs rank 27th in opponent completion percentage (68 percent) and 31st in completions allowed per game (27). They don’t give up big plays (6.4 yards per pass attempt — 8th) but they do give up volume.
Saints QB Drew Brees is completing 71 percent of his passes over the last three weeks at 23 completions per game. Over his postseason career, Brees is averaging 27 completions per game and faces a Bucs defense that is No. 1 against the run, but giving up 27 completions per game on the season.
New Orleans’ Taysom Hill could miss Sunday’s game, which would put a couple of extra plays in Brees’ hands, while WR Tre’Quan Smith should return as well.
PREDICTION: Drew Brees Over 25.5 completions (-120)
Tom Brady was protected like an infant last week against a very potent Washington pass rush, and finished with a 104.3 passer rating. He was given time all game and had 12 completions for 209 yards (one sack) in the first half.
The Saints rank similarly to the Football Team in pass-rush, generating pressure at 31 percent of defensive snaps. However, the Bucs' O-line allows the lowest pressure rate of the remaining teams in the playoffs. If Tampa’s No. 5 offensive line can give Brady time, Tom Terrific could have a big game with the Saints being so hard to run on.
Brady averaged 26 completions for over 300 yards per game in three outdoor games this year and since his Week 9 loss to the Saints, the veteran QB has topped 300 yards six times over eight games.
With so many options in the passing game, if Brady is given time, he will have no problem finding his third and fourth reads. New Orleans has seen only one Top-10 DVOA pass offense in its last nine games.
PREDICTION: Tom Brady Over 296.5 passing yards (-112)
Alvin Out Loud
The Buccaneers have been really stingy on opposing running backs. No team allowed fewer RB rushing yards per game, as Tampa was the only NFL team to concede fewer than 1,000 such yards this year.
Saints’ RB Alvin Kamara ran for 99 yards last week, but it took him 22 carries to get there (4.3 yards per carry). It won’t be easy for Kamara to gain yards on the ground with Tampa allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this season.
Good thing for New Orleans that the Saints’ best RB is also a hell of a pass catcher. He hasn’t been used much in the passing game of late, but did average 6.7 receptions per game from Weeks 1 through 10.
The Bucs rank 7th in RB receiving yards allowed per game (671 yards) and 1st in RB receptions allowed (101 receptions). Adding a Kamara Over 4.5 catches is a great stack bet with our Drew Brees Over 25.5 completions.
PREDICTION: Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 receptions (-150)
Drew Brees isn’t known for his goal-line TDs, but the 42-year-old QB almost put one in last week and may have a better chance at getting his number called with TD vulture Taysom Hill questionable to play Sunday.
Hill scored three red-zone TDs in five rushes over the final three weeks of the regular season and hasn’t practiced all week due to a knee injury.
Tampa has allowed the fewest TDs to opposing running backs, so the Saints may have to get creative on the goal line and at +1,100, we are thinking, “why not?”. If you want to play a Brady TD at +700 we wouldn’t call you crazy.
PREDICTION: Drew Brees anytime TD (+1,100)
NFL Prop Picks for Friday
The Ravens blitzed a league-high 41 percent of the time this year and defensive coordinator Wink Martindale told the media on Wednesday that it's going to be more of the same this Saturday in Buffalo against QB Josh Allen.
Allen has stood in and delivered bombs against the opposing pass rush all year and has 19 TDs to show for it—the most in the league. Martindale referred to Allen as a young Ben Roethlisberger with the arm of Dan Marino. If Allen can find some single coverage, a long TD could be in store for Saturday.
Even if he can’t do it, Lamar Jackson & Co. are more than able to score a long touchdown themselves as they have TDs of 40-plus yards in back-to-back weeks. Buffalo is an average team when it comes to creating pressure, meaning Jackosn will have more time to let routes develop and let it rip himself.
PREDICTION: Longest touchdown Over 42.5 yards (-115)
Let There Be Tight...Ends
Only one team allowed more receiving yards to opposing TEs than the Buffalo Bills this season. On the year, tight ends have averaged 5.75 catches for 62 yards per game against Buffalo.
The scary thing about those numbers is they include four games against the Jets (Chris Herndon) and the Patriots (Ryan Izzo). Baltimore’s Mark Andrews may be the second pass-option in a run-first offense, but he still averaged 50 yards on over six targets a game this year.
The Bills conceded 14 catches for 137 yards and a TD to Indianapolis tight ends last week as all three Colts TE’s topped their receiving and reception totals. Miami’s Mike Gesicki also eclipsed his receiving total in Week 17 against Buffalo.
If Buffalo pushes the pace and moves the ball better than the Titans did last week, it could mean more pass attempts for the Baltimore offense. With Jackson’s threat of running, Buffalo’s linebackers will have a tough task in their decision making, giving Andrews one more step on his opponents.
PREDICTION: Mark Andrews Over 54.5 receiving yards (-112)
Piece of the Jackson
Jackson has played three postseason games and has amassed 333 rushing yards. In his two playoff games since last season, the reigning MVP has rushed 36 times and is coming off a 16/136/1 against the Titans last week. Running back J.K. Dobbins may have scored in seven straight games, but if coach Jim Harbaugh needs a spark, it’s coming from No. 8.
The Bills have a decent pass defense that ranks 12th in the league but QBs have found success avoiding the air and taking off themselves for six points. The Bills have allowed the most QB rushing TDs in the NFL this season.
Sean McDermott’s defense shut down Jackson last year but keeping the QB out of the end zone is no easy task. If Allen keeps this high-powered offense rolling, we could see Jackson get creative, which is a good thing against a defense that has struggled to keep opposing QBs from hitting paydirt.
PREDICTION: Lamar Jackson anytime TD (+100)
Giving It Up Underneath
It’s tough to believe but Buffalo slot receiver Cole Beasley is a second-team All-Pro receiver this year. He led the Bills in catches last week against the Colts and cashed the Over on his reception total (3.5) two minutes into the second half.
Last week, Baltimore slot corner Marlon Humphrey got abused by Titans receiver A.J. Brown when he lined up in tight or in the slot. The Ravens have been generous to opposing slot receivers as Baltimore loves to blitz, which forces QBs to throw to receivers running the shorter routes.
Pittsburgh’s slot receiver, JuJu Smith-Schuster had 15 grabs in two games, Jarvis Landry had 12 catches in two games and Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb hauled in six balls in Week 13 versus the Ravens. Baltimore may not get burned deep from the slot, but they are willing to give up short passes and volume.
Beasley was banged up this week in practice but is a full go for Saturday’s primetime game. The stunted receiver’s reception total is hard to find at 3.5 but the Over 4.5 is paying well at +125. We would take the Over 3.5 at -135 or better but have no problems taking the Over 4.5 at 0.8 units to win 1u.
PREDICTION: Cole Beasley Over 4.5 receptions (+125) 0.8u
NFL Prop Picks for Thursday
Rams Rough On the Road
Everyone knows that the Los Angeles Rams’ defense is elite. It allowed the fewest points against on the year at 18.6 points per game but Sean McVay’s defense has played much differently on the road.
The Rams have allowed 20 or more points in six straight road games which includes average to below-average offenses like San Francisco, Arizona and Miami. It hasn’t all been the defense's fault as the Rams offense has averaged 1.4 giveaways on the road, which is in the Jets and Bengals territory.
Jared Goff couldn’t even high-five his teammates due to his injured thumb last week but the QB is planning to start this weekend. The offense (possibly without Cooper Kupp) could struggle to keep possession and give Aaron Rodgers more opportunities to top his team total of 26.5. Defensive juggernaut Aaron Donald is also banged up but is trending towards playing.
The Packers have topped 26 points in three of their last four home games and at least 26 points in three straight home playoff games. Rodgers’ splits favor playing at home, as well, his QB rating is a full eight points higher at Lambeau.
PREDICTION: Green Bay Packers team total Over 26.5 (-115)
Squaring Up the Favorites
This one may be a square bet, but Saturday’s favorites are paying plus-money on a moneyline parlay.
Green Bay is a near-TD favorite at home with the temperatures in the low-30s. The Rams defense allowed the fewest TDs (1.1 per game) at the indoor comforts of SoFi Stadium but surrendered 2.9 TDs per game on the road. Aaron Rodgers is 29-7 SU at home in below-freezing conditions while teams coming off the bye are winning roughly 68 percent of the time over the last 19 seasons.
The Ravens came out flat last weekend, and if it weren’t for Lamar Jackson’s 48-yard rushing TD, the game could have easily gone in the Titans’ favor. Baltimore made just two trips to the red zone (minus its last drive) as this offense did not impress.
If both favorite spreads scare you, don’t be afraid to pair them up on the ML.
PREDICTION: Two-team moneyline parlay (Green Bay ML and Buffalo ML) +123
Just One First Down
Rodgers has topped 10 yards rushing in five of his last seven games and faces a Rams defense that gave up 50 rushing yards (four rushes) to Russell Wilson last week.
Over Rodgers’ last 13 playoff games, the MVP candidate has run for at least 11 yards in nine of those contests. Rodgers isn’t known for taking off as much these days, but with a rushing total of 10.5 yards, all it could take is one first-down scamper.
With Rodgers not a huge threat to take off, the Rams could play more man-to-man coverage, which is always good for QB rushing totals.
PREDICTION: Aaron Rodgers Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110)
Only four other teams allowed more fantasy points to opposing running backs than the Green Bay Packers this season. They allowed 19 total TDs to running backs and gave up a below-average 4.5 yards per rush attempt. Opposing backs also gouged Green Bay with 5.7 catches for 48 receiving yards per game — both bottom-five numbers.
Los Angeles’ Cam Akers was PFF’s highest-graded offensive player last week versus the Seahawks. The rookie steamroller has eclipsed 170 total yards twice since Week 14 and his pass-catching skills will be needed as the RB will again be the focal point of the Rams’ offense.
Even if the Packers get up early, Akers’ skills in the passing game will keep him a part of the game plan.
PREDICTION: Cam Akers anytime TD (-115) and Over 86.5 total (rec and rush) yards (-115)
NFL Divisional Round Prop Betting Card
- Nick Chubb Over 88.5 total (rec and rush) yards (-115)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 2.5 passing TDs (+100)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 16.5 rushing yards (-120)
- Travis Kelce longest reception Over 24.5 yards (-115)
- Drew Brees Over 25.5 completions (-120)
- Tom Brady Over 296.5 passing yards (-112)
- Alvin Kamara Over 4.5 receptions (-150)
- Drew Brees anytime TD (+1,100)
- Longest touchdown Over 42.5 yards (-115)
- Mark Andrews Over 54.5 receiving yards (-112)
- Lamar Jackson anytime TD (+100)
- Cole Beasley Over 4.5 receptions (+125) 0.8u
- Green Bay Packers team total Over 26.5 (-115)
- Two-team moneyline parlay (Green Bay ML and Buffalo ML) +123
- Aaron Rodgers Over 10.5 rushing yards (-110)
- Cam Akers anytime TD (-115) and Over 86.5 total (rec and rush) yards (-115)
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