With just four teams left, the touchdown prop board is thin, with plenty of moving parts to monitor.
The Denver Broncos face uncertainty at wide receiver and running back, while the Seattle Seahawks RB2 role remains unsettled, creating some wait-and-see value for patient bettors on players like Pat Bryant or George Holani.
Even with those variables, three anytime touchdown props and NFL picks stand out heading into the Conference Championships.
NE
DEN
LAR
SEAOdds courtesy of DraftKings
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Patriots vs Broncos
Rhamondre Stevenson (+115 at DraftKings)
Even after missing time with an eye injury, Rhamondre Stevenson logged 16 carries — his most since Week 8.
The New England Patriots' running back handled 80% of the team’s second-half rushing attempts while playing 87% of the snaps.
This is Stevenson’s backfield, and a road-favorite game script against a backup quarterback points to a heavy workload. Drake Maye’s ball-security concerns could funnel even more touches his way.
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Patriots vs Broncos
Evan Engram (+500 at DraftKings)
With questions lingering in both the backfield and at receiver for the Denver Broncos, I’ll roll the dice on tight end Evan Engram.
With Pat Bryant, J.K. Dobbins, and Troy Franklin all uncertain, a fresh QB–TE connection makes sense at +500. Lower aDOT targets carry more value here, and Engram’s 4.5 aDOT positions him as a natural checkdown for Jarrett Stidham.
This is a half-unit play for me.
Rams vs Seahawks
Colby Parkinson (+330 at DraftKings)
The Los Angeles Rams leaned into 11 personnel at a 90% rate last week, yet Colby Parkinson still dominated the tight end usage.
Parkinson ran the bulk of the routes and finished with as many targets as the rest of the TE room combined, while Tyler Higbee played just 10% of the snaps.
Since Higbee returned, Parkinson has clearly emerged as TE1, drawing 17 targets over the last three games and scoring three touchdowns in that span.
Even in a WR-heavy setup, the role and red-zone usage are firmly in Parkinson’s favor.
More NFL Conference Championship touchdown predictions
Conference Championship anytime touchdown parlay
Courtland Sutton
Stefon Diggs
Jaxon-Smith Njigba
Let’s target three of the best +EV touchdown plays on the board based on THE BLITZ projections. At the time of writing, only six players at DraftKings are priced as +EV, and these three stand out.
Courtland Sutton remains a true WR1 and is being discounted due to the quarterback downgrade.
Stefon Diggs led his team in targets last week and doesn’t need consistent red-zone usage to find the end zone.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba grading out as +EV at a +100 TD price speaks volumes about his role and efficiency.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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