We’re at the business end of the season and have two fascinating Conference Championship games ahead of us on Sunday.
I’ve crunched the numbers and data to find the best first touchdown scorers in each game.
Here are my best two NFL picks for January 25.
Best Conference Championship first TD scorer props
Hunter Henry
Colby Parkinson
TD prop #1: Hunter Henry first TD scorer
The injury to Bo Nix has really handed the advantage in the AFC Conference Championship game to the New England Patriots, and we’ll be taking a New England player to open the scoring.
The running back room is fairly split with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson forming a dynamic duo, which leads us to Hunter Henry, who has the most receiving touchdowns for the Patriots this season.
Henry has had a brilliant season. He’s found the endzone eight times in 19 games, including one already in the playoffs when he scored the first touchdown of the game against the Chargers.
He’s the focal point of the passing game and has 21 red zone targets in the regular season, nine more than Stefon Diggs, the pass catcher with the next most RZ targets.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid scored against them last week, and the Denver Broncos gave up the ninth-most receiving yards to the position during the regular season.
TD prop #2: Colby Parkinson first TD scorer
Next up, it’s the NFC Conference Championship game, and yet again, it’s a tight end that offers us the best value here, with Colby Parkinson looking like monster value to open the scoring.
He’s gone under the radar this year, thanks to the stellar seasons from Puka Nacua and Davante Adams, but he’s scored nine times, including one in the playoffs.
Parkinson had more red zone targets than Nacua in the regular season, and with his more celebrated teammates taking attention, it gives him a chance to sneak in and open the scoring here.
He’s already found the endzone once against the Seahawks here, and all nine of his touchdowns have come in the past 11 games. He’s on a heater and at huge odds, so he needs to be backed here.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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