We're in for a treat on Thursday Night Football when the San Francisco 49ers and Los Angeles Rams head to Melbourne to face off in Week 1 action.
Our 49ers vs. Rams expert picks have you covered with looks ranging from spreads to player props.
For more NFL picks, read our 49ers vs. Rams predictions for Sept. 10.
49ers vs Rams expert picks
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
 Probability |
|
|---|---|
 Jason Logan: Brock Purdy 15+ rushing yards |
57% |
 Josh Inglis: 49ers team total Under 21.5 |
52% |
 Joe Osborne: 49ers +3.5 |
49% |
 Jon Metler: Rams -3.5 |
52% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Jason Logan’s expert pick: Brock Purdy 15+ rushing yards.
Price: 57% at Kalshi
Brock Purdy is breathing a little easier after learning Aaron Donald would skip the trip to Australia. But even without Donald, this Los Angeles Rams front is among the best — headlined by Myles Garrett’s debut.
Purdy is a sneaky fast QB and does the most damage on the ground against teams that create pressure with the front four without relying on the blitz. That sounds like the Rams.
Last season in limited work, he rushed for 15+ yards in seven of his 11 starts, including his two postseason outings.
Player projections for Week 1 bounce between 14 and 20 rushing yards from the 49ers QB, which looks good when measured against his market for Yes 15+ rushing yards (57%) at Kalshi.
Josh Inglis' expert pick: 49ers team total Under 21.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
There's a lot to worry about if you're backing this San Francisco 49ers offense. First is the travel schedule, which I feel was handled better by the Rams.
Getting acclimated (they won't) and then playing at 10 a.m. local time seems backward. Next is the health of all the skilled players.
George Kittle's workload will be monitored after returning from an Achilles injury. Christian McCaffrey's name has been in the conversation for a month as he deals with a possible "tightness" issue.
Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk, and Ricky Pearsall are out. Deebo Samuel signed a one-year deal and is looking slow. Mike Evans has been picking up injuries over the last 12 months like it's his hobby, and Brock Purdy is coming off a two-injury 2025 season in which he played just nine games.
This should be the worst version of the 49ers' offense. Add in the matchup, travel, and a potentially poorer NFL field, and I'll fade this offense all day.
Joe Osborne's expert pick: 49ers +3.5
Price: 49% at Kalshi
Sean McVay has faced Kyle Shanahan 19 times, and only four of those games ended with the Rams winning by four or more points.
Now the San Francisco 49ers come into this one as healthy as we’ve seen them in quite a while. I also prefer the Niners' travel plan, getting to Australia early and giving themselves more time to adjust.
Jon Metler’s expert pick: Rams -3.5
Price: 52% at Kalshi
Getting the Rams at -3.5 (52%) at Kalshi is a win compared to what we're seeing elsewhere, where Rams -3.5 is trading closer to 54%, or the line has already moved to -4.
I make the Rams closer to a 5-point favorite in this spot, so there is a clear edge to exploit at -3.5 (52%) at Kalshi. Given my projection, it's easy to see why the market is moving toward Rams -4.
Aaron Donald won't be making the trip, but I still think the Rams' other offseason acquisitions will help.
Myles Garrett and Trent McDuffie will play a huge role. Garrett, along with Poona Ford, should be able to generate pressure in the A-gap, while McDuffie has the ability to completely suffocate Mike Evans on the perimeter.
How to watch 49ers vs Rams
| Location | Melbourne Cricket Ground, Melbourne, VIC |
| Date | Thursday, Sept. 9, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 9:35 p.m. ET |
| TV | Netflix |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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