The San Francisco 49ers are a 4-point road favorite in Dallas for America's Game of the Week Sunday at AT&T Stadium, with a 55.5-point total and 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff.
My 49ers vs. Cowboys prop picks target three exploitable matchups as San Francisco looks for its fifth straight win over Dallas, including two playoff victories.
Find more expert analysis and predictions with the latest NFL picks.
Best 49ers vs Cowboys props
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| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Javonte Williams Under 59.5 rushing yards |
52% |
| Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards |
53% |
 Brock Purdy 20+ rushing yards |
53% |
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Prop pick #1: Javonte Williams Under 59.5 rushing yards
I'm expecting the San Francisco 49ers to make the Dallas Cowboys play with one arm tied behind their back, so give me Javonte Williams Under 59.5 rushing yards, up to 55%.
San Francisco leads the league in rushing EPA per carry allowed, according to Pro.NFL.com, while Dallas ranks 23rd in rushing rate. Williams has cleared this number in just four of nine games, and the Cowboys are 31st in ESPN's run-blocking win rate.
That matchup gets even uglier with All-Pro LB Fred Warner, the Niners' defensive green dot, owning PFF's highest rushing-defense grade among 81 qualified linebackers. If Dallas can't create movement up front, Williams shouldn't get enough clean runway to beat this number.
Prop pick #2: Dak Prescott 275+ passing yards
I clicked the Cowboys +4 for my Circa Million VIII picks this week because Dak Prescott will light up San Francisco's defense.
Dak has gone Over his passing yards prop in five of his nine games this season, and he'll have both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens on the field Sunday. Plus, Prescott averages nearly 30 more passing yards per game at home over his career.
San Francisco's pass defense can be had. According to Pro.NFL.com, the Niners have the third-worst quarterback pressure rate in the league and third-worst average target separation. Prescott's elite wide-receiving duo will have all day to get open.
For the record, I'd trade Prescott's 275+ passing yards prop up to 56%.
Prop pick #3: Brock Purdy 20+ rushing yards
Give me Brock Purdy's rushing yards prop up to 55% because he's an underrated scrambler facing a defense that struggles to contain quarterbacks.
Purdy has rushed for at least 28 yards in six of eight games this season. He also torched Dallas for 56 yards on eight carries in their 2024 meeting, after recording zero attempts against the Cowboys in 2023.
Those games were San Francisco victories, but I'm expecting Dallas to keep this one close, if not win outright. That could force Purdy to make more plays with his legs rather than coast with a lead.
Even better, Dallas has allowed the third-most rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season.
- Prop picks: 18-24, -7.53 units
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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