Not all Top-10 losses are the same. In the fourth straight week with at least two Top-10 teams falling, the fates of No. 2 Miami, No. 7 Texas Tech, and No. 10 LSU are quite different.
One is suddenly in such turmoil that it's fair to wonder how their head coach will handle the coming scrutiny. Another is coached by Mario Cristobal, impervious to outside scrutiny given his fundamental inability to understand social constructs such as time.
Coaching scrutiny may be at an all-time high these next six weeks. The 2025-26 coaching carousel looks set to spin faster than ever before, exceeding even 2021’s wild speeds. In fact, two of those hires from four years ago could be the ones to propel this to unprecedented speeds.
But let’s start with Cristobal, a 2021 hire himself but one that should remain safe at his alma mater…
CFB Week 8 overreactions to avoid
Do not overreact to Miami’s upset loss on Friday night. The Hurricanes remain in ripe Playoff position, and that matters above all else.
Carson Beck’s fourth interception on Friday leaves Miami now needing some help to reach the ACC title game.
Georgia Tech and Virginia both remain unbeaten in conference play, as does SMU, but the Mustangs at least face Miami on November 1. The Yellow Jackets and Cavaliers face neither each other nor the Hurricanes. Between the two of them, the toughest remaining game is Virginia’s trip to Duke on November 15.
Not to say any game is easy in a league known for its ability to trip over itself, but both Georgia Tech and Virginia should be favored in every remaining ACC game.
Yet, FanDuel considers Miami the second most likely team to win the conference, at +280 and behind Georgia Tech at +230. The Cavaliers have to go on the road three times, including that trip to Duke, and they have a frustrating rivalry to end the season against Virginia Tech. One stumble likely will propel the Hurricanes into the title game.
Even if missing the ACC title game, Miami should finish the season with just one loss. At 11-1, the Hurricanes would be a Playoff lock. There is a reason FanDuel lists them at -225 to make the Playoff.
Mario Cristobal did not have his team ready. Carson Beck played terribly. Miami lost. But do not overreact to one bad night. No team is as good or as bad as its most recent game.
Douglas’s advice: In fact, Stanford is not as good as its win late Saturday night against Florida State. The Cardinal should come down from that high just as the Hurricanes refocus on the path ahead of them. Take Miami up to -34.
Do not overreact to Texas Tech’s loss to Arizona State on Saturday. The Red Raiders’ massive roster investment should still pay for itself this season.
The Big 12 carries the ACC’s mantle for tripping over itself nowadays, being such a morass of good-but-not-great teams. Stumbles are inevitable and frequent.
Texas Tech will face BYU, one of the two remaining unbeatens in Big 12 play, along with Cincinnati. The Red Raiders remain +100 favorites to win the conference. Losing to Arizona State was frustrating, nothing more, especially not while without starting quarterback Behren Morton.
The great news for Texas Tech? Here comes the biggest laugh in the Big 12. In fact, it is such a laugh that a bet becomes unadvisable.
Douglas’s advice: Texas Tech might be favored by 40 against Oklahoma State this weekend. Any number higher than -28 is one too high to act upon. The Red Raiders know they have no worries against the Cowboys; the playbook should be treated as such, as vanilla as possible. Texas Tech will ready for Oklahoma State broadly, not specifically.
Do not overreact to Vanderbilt’s upset of LSU and seeming path to greater glories. Significant work remains ahead of the Commodores.
They face Missouri this week before heading to Texas with a trip to Tennessee capping the regular season. All three of those opponents are flawed, but losing two of those games would absolutely knock Vanderbilt out of the Playoff picture, and falling just once would put those hopes at risk.
Some may suggest the Commodores could win the SEC; ignore them. Vanderbilt is listed at +2700 to win the SEC, because any second loss would knock the ‘Dores too far behind 4-0 Alabama and 4-0 Texas A&M in that hope.
Furthermore, Vanderbilt’s odds of reaching the Playoff are only a modest +210.
The Commodores are the best story of the 2020s. Clark Lea’s program-building serves as a model of modern college football. But this is not a movie. Vanderbilt’s grandest dreams will not survive.
Douglas’s advice: Recognize Missouri’s defense is one of the best in the country at harrying a quarterback. Diego Pavia should struggle more than usual. And as he goes, so goes Vanderbilt. A Tigers’ moneyline may not be a fun narrative, but it will hold value.
CFB Week 8 reactions to make
Do overreact to LSU’s loss to Vanderbilt. Brian Kelly is not yet on a hot seat, but the conversation will gain momentum with the Tigers’ next loss, and that is not far off.
Kelly just lost to one of his former defensive coordinators in Clark Lea. Another awaits him, Mike Elko and Texas A&M.
Then Kelly and LSU head to Alabama after an idle week.
Good luck with that.
This was supposed to be a title-contending year for the Tigers. They are now +920 to reach the College Football Playoff. Kelly is being openly trolled by Vanderbilt.
To those in the visiting press room…
— #17 Vanderbilt Football (@VandyFootball) October 18, 2025
Consider yourself warned. pic.twitter.com/DhKnpEhya9
When LSU suffers a third loss in conference play, Kelly will have to answer growing questions about the program’s direction. This was supposed to be an all-in year. Then again, it was supposed to be for James Franklin at Penn State, too.
Douglas’s advice: This is unraveling for LSU. Bet against that discord, and bet on Texas A&M up to -4.5.
Do overreact to Kentucky’s third and fourth-down playcalls in overtime with a chance to upset Texas. The Wildcats betrayed a complete lack of understanding of their own offense.
Kentucky got within arm’s reach of the goal line in overtime against Texas. The Wildcats ran two consecutive running back dives, both stymied by a superior Longhorns defensive line.
What was Kentucky’s plan? It did not have one.
1) The way this defense has played...you take the FG
— Jason Ence (@jasonuk17) October 19, 2025
2) Trying repeatedly to run the ball up the middle vs this Texas team when they know it's coming is utterly stupid, and an OC with a brain would know that.
This offense cannot even try to be creative anymore; that is how much the players have checked out.
Douglas’ advice: That overtime failure and choice not to try a field goal kept Kentucky Under its team total. Thank you, Mark Stoops. Any Kentucky team total north of 14 warrants an aggressive Under.
Rapid fire: More Week 9 bets to target
-
Do overreact to Lincoln Riley’s desperation. Calling an end-around receiver pass in a one-possession game was desperate. Doing it in pouring rain was desperate. Riley knew he was running out of planned successes against Notre Dame. Now then, it worked remarkably well, but that worry stands out. The Trojans have the week off, but ready to doubt them the rest of the season after the Irish dashed their vague Playoff hopes.
Lincoln Riley on his playcalling tonight:
— Ryan Kartje (@RyanKartje) October 19, 2025
“I had the reverse pass and two 4th-down calls that weren’t very good calls and didn’t put our guys in very good positions,” Riley said. "I’ve gotta be way better for our guys.” -
Entirely overreact to Wisconsin going scoreless at home for a second time in two weekends. The Badgers are hopeless. A trip to Oregon will not solve these problems. It should be a third straight week without a touchdown.
The mood in Madison: pic.twitter.com/m61oy0T9b6
— Joey Kaufman (@joeyrkaufman) October 18, 2025 - Without Drew Pyne, Bowling Green is not competent. It is that simple. No one wants to suggest you bet on Kent State twice in one month, but beating Bowling Green should not be much harder than beating UMass.
- Auburn at Arkansas is a question of how many full-time coaches will collect a paycheck from this game? Oddly, the program with the longer job opening is the program that is a touch more stable at this point. In other words, grab Arkansas as a short underdog.
- Cincinnati’s trenches are underappreciated, and that asset is running through plenty of Big 12 foes. Next up? A Baylor defense that just gave up 42 points to TCU. The Bears’ defensive woes are too many to slow the Bearcats, and without slowing them, it may be a long night.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
