For my money, there may not be a more exciting game on the Week 6 schedule than the matchup between the Vanderbilt Commodores and Alabama Crimson Tide.
We will see two explosive offenses going at each other in a key SEC showdown, and that means lots of opportunities to cash in on some player prop bets.
For my money, there may not be a more exciting game on the Week 6 schedule than the matchup between Vanderbilt and Alabama.
We will see two explosive offenses going at each other in a key SEC matchup, and that means lots of opportunities to cash in on some player prop bets.
Here are my three favorite Vanderbilt vs. Alabama player props for Saturday, October 4.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama props for Week 6
Horton anytime touchdown (+135)- Simpson o2.5 passing touchdowns (-106)
Pavia 053.5 rushing yards (-114)
Prop bet #1: Isaiah Horton anytime touchdown
Let’s run it back with Isaiah Horton, folks.
While we aren’t getting the absurd +310 odds we got a week ago against Georgia (and congrats if you tailed that pick with me!) — we are still getting a great price on the best red zone threat in the Alabama offense.
The 6-foot-4 receiver is third in targets for the Tide, and he is benefiting from the attention paid to Ryan Williams and Germie Bernard. Horton boasts the best catch rate of the trio, and he has now caught a touchdown in three consecutive games.
Vanderbilt ranks 80th in points allowed per quality drive, and last week, Utah State quarterback Bryson Barnes threw three red-zone touchdown passes to three different receivers in the first half. As a team, they hit five red zone TD passes to different receivers.
Alabama’s wideouts are vastly better, and every player in the Vanderbilt secondary will be giving up a height advantage to Horton.
Currently listed at +135, Horton presents outstanding value to score.
Prop bet #2: Ty Simpson Over 2.5 passing touchdowns
Sticking with that theme, Vanderbilt has allowed nine touchdown passes this season. That’s the most of any team in the SEC, and only six Power 4 schools have allowed more.
Alabama may have the best receiving room in college football, and the coaching staff knows it. That’s perhaps why the Tide have one of the most negative RROE metrics in college football, running 11.6% less than expected.
Vanderbilt hasn’t faced a passing attack anywhere close to this one this season. Utah State ranks 36th in passing success rate and 53rd in EPA/dropback, and it tore Vandy’s secondary apart to the tune of 7.2 yards per catch and five scores.
Ty Simpson has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all four of his starts. The Commodores are sixth in EPA/rush and 47th in rush success rate against, so I expect the Tide will be throwing the ball just as much — if not more often — in this one.
The total for the game sits at 56.5 points, and there should be plenty of points scored. Look for Simpson to put up a trio of touchdowns through the air.
Prop bet #3: Diego Pavia Over 53.5 rushing yards
Gunner Stockton ran five times for 22 yards last week, and he’s nowhere near as dangerous a runner as Diego Pavia.
Betting on quarterback rushing yards is always tricky in college football, with sack yardage lost punishing us. However, Alabama has registered just six sacks on the season — despite having played UL Monroe and Wisconsin, both of whom have had serious issues on the offensive line.
Pavia has rushed for 79+ yards each of his last two games on single-digit carries, and he has topped 60 yards in three of his last four. Saturday will see Pavia face an Alabama front seven that will be without two starting linebackers, in addition to James Smith being suspended for the first half.
The Vandy pivot is the team's leading rusher this season, operating behind a line generating 3.5 line yards per rush. That’s led to the Commodores getting 1.4 second-level yards per carry and 2.2 open field yards per attempt.
Georgia averaged nearly seven yards a carry last week. Pavia should find plenty of opportunities to pick up yards with his legs in this one.
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