Put some respect on the Vanderbilt Commodores’ name. Vandy rolls into this week’s matchup against the Alabama Crimson Tide undefeated and ranked 16th in the nation.
Confidence is sky-high after last season’s upset win over the Tide in Nashville — a game that ended with FirstBank Stadium’s goalposts parading down Broadway.
Yet despite the momentum, the Commodores are still heavy underdogs. My Vanderbilt vs. Alabama predictions and college football picks break down why oddsmakers are still underestimating Vandy ahead of this SEC showdown on Saturday, October 4.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama prediction
Vanderbilt vs Alabama best bet: Vanderbilt +10.5 (-110)
There are a lot of reasons to buy into the hype of this Vanderbilt Commodores team, and it all starts with quarterback Diego Pavia.
Pavia is having another outstanding season, throwing for 1,211 yards while completing 75% of his passes with 13 touchdowns, and adding another 294 yards and two scores on the ground.
He leads a Vanderbilt offense that is even better than the one that upset the Alabama Crimson Tide last season. Vandy ranks second in offensive success rate and is very balanced, ranking 21st in EPA per rush and fourth in EPA per dropback.
Frankly, it is the type of offense that has given the Crimson Tide problems since Kalen DeBoer has gotten to Tuscaloosa.
Last season it was USF, Vanderbilt, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Oklahoma. This year it was Florida State. This Crimson Tide defense has looked slow against teams with mobile QBs and enters this matchup ranked 49th in opponent EPA per rush. The Tide are 0-6 ATS in those games.
They looked particularly slow against Florida State, surrendering 230 rushing yards to the Seminoles, including 78 yards to QB Tommy Castellanos. That running also allowed Castellanos to be efficient in the passing games going 9-for-14 for 152 yards.
Pavia and this Vandy offense is better. They are also confident. Pavia went on On3 and said, “But we just gotta play within the white lines. If we do that, if we play our game, it won’t be close.”
This guy will run through a brick wall for this team, and I expect this game to be close.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama same-game parlay
Speaking of running through a wall, I’m betting Pavia does just that this weekend.
He knows his team is going to have to score a bunch if they want to beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa for the first time in decades. And that means he’ll have to tuck it and run.
Tide opponents are scoring on 83.3% of their drives once they get into the red zone. Pavia will have to prove he wants it more, so I like him to score an anytime touchdown.
Now, I do think that Alabama will have some success throwing the football in this game. Ty Simpson is a much better fit in Kalen DeBoer’s system and he has started to develop some chemistry with wide out Isaish Horton.
Horton has hauled in five catches in each of the last two games, going for 48 and 65 yards. With Ryan Williams garnering most of the attention from opponents, Horton has become a reliable other option.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama SGP
- Vanderbilt +10.5
- Diego Pavia TD
- Isaiah Horton Over 49.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Lightning strikes twice
Let's keep this deep-ball SGP simple by taking Vandy from covering the spread to win outright. They already believe they can do it, and have the offense to control the tempo of this game.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama SGP
- Vanderbilt moneyline
- Diego Pavia TD
- Isaiah Horton Over 49.5 receiving yards
Vanderbilt vs Alabama game predictions
Vanderbilt vs Alabama moneyline prediction
This is really tough. Vanderbilt has all the tools to keep this game close and even pull off the upset like Florida State did. That said, Alabama is a very talented team with a passing game that is starting to find it's footing. With this game being in Tuscaloosa, the Crimson Tide likely pull out a close win.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama spread prediction
Vanderbilt looks like a great bet to cover this spread. Alabama is 0-6 ATS in six games during the DeBoer era in matchups vs. offensive systems that rely on mobile quarterbacks. Vandy will move the ball on the ground, and open things up for Diego Pavia to move things through the air, allowing them to make this a competitive and close ball game.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama Over/Under prediction
I'm leaning Over in this matchup. Vanderbilt is going to have to go Over its team total of 21.5 to keep this game close, and I believe they do considering how Alabama is defending the run. At the same time, the Tide should be able to move the ball through the air vs. a Commodores defense that ranks 56th in success rate. This will be a shootout. And it will be fun.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama odds
- Spread: Vanderbilt +10.5 | Alabama -10.5
- Moneyline: Vanderbilt +315 | Alabama -400
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
Vanderbilt vs Alabama trend to know
Vanderbilt has covered the Spread in 10 of their last 14 games for +5.60 Units and a 36% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Vanderbilt vs Alabama.
How to watch Vanderbilt vs Alabama
| Location | Bryant-Denny Stadium, Tuscaloosa, AL |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
Vanderbilt vs Alabama latest injuries
Vanderbilt vs Alabama weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
