One of the first of many warm weather bowls greets us from Florida as Louisville faces off against Toledo in the Bush’s Boca Raton Bowl.
The Cardinals did something two games ago that has been a common occurrence in the Jeff Brohm era: lose a game as a massive favorite that drops them out of contention for their goals. Despite that, Louisville finished the season strong with a 41-0 dismantling of rival Kentucky.
My Louisville vs. Toledo predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, December 23 are calling for another convincing Cardinals win.
Toledo vs Louisville predictions for the Boca Raton Bowl
Who will win the Boca Raton Bowl?
Louisville. I’m taking the Cards to cover this spread, so I expect them to win fairly convincingly. This would be a competitive matchup if both teams were at full strength, but that’s not the case. The lack of depth for Toledo should show up.
Toledo vs Louisville best bet: Louisville -6.5 (-118)
This is less about the Louisville Cardinals being some offensive juggernaut and more about how fragile the Toledo Rockets’ setup looks for 60 minutes.
The Cards have played a tougher schedule, so the weekly speed and physicality jump should not surprise them in the same way it can for a MAC team in a bowl.
Toledo has real continuity issues. Three defensive starters are already expected out (Malachi Davis, Braden Awls, Chris D’Appolonia), and there is still availability uncertainty around several other key pieces. If any of those pieces sit, it is harder to play the tight, coverage-driven style that carried their season-long defensive profile.
The starters are a genuine high quality defense but the depth has far more questions. On top of that, head coach Jason Candle is gone and several assistants have departed, giving Louisville an edge with a coaching staff that are quality game-planners.
The biggest swing is under center, as Tucker Gleason is unlikely to play. That may mean freshman Kalieb Osborne starting behind an offensive line that’s already missing a few spots.
Even if Osborne plays well, that combination raises the floor for sacks and drive-killing mistakes against a Louisville defense that has, surprisingly, created a lot of havoc this season.
Of course the Cardinals have their own absences up front and star WR Chris Bell is out, but QB Miller Moss is expected to play. That continuity is enough for me to lay the 6.5, but with a hard cap on that number.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Toledo vs Louisville same-game parlay
I’m going heavy Louisville in this same-game parlay.
As already mentioned, one of the best betting angles of this matchup is Louisville having a significant pre-game coaching advantage.
I paired that with the Under, getting a slight non-correlated boost in the process. I projected this number pretty much on the market. However, I’m not sure the model is truly capturing just how much turnover from both teams could impact things.
Toledo vs Louisville SGP
- Louisville -6.5
- Louisville 1Q -1.5
- Under 44.5
Toledo vs Louisville game predictions
Toledo vs Louisville spread prediction
I like Louisville to cover. The Cardinals' coaching edge in this matchup should show up in the margins.
Toledo vs Louisville Over/Under prediction
With a significant amount of turnover on both sides, especially Toledo, I lean to mistakes and against human achievement by backing the Under.
Toledo vs Louisville odds
- Spread: Toledo +6.5 | Louisville -6.5
- Moneyline: Toledo +210 | Louisville -255
- Over/Under: Over 44.5 | Under 44.5
Toledo vs Louisville trend to know
Louisville has hit the team total Under in five of their last six games (+3.80 Units / 56% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Toledo vs Louisville.
How to watch Toledo vs Louisville
| Location | Flagler Credit Union Stadium, Boca Raton, FL |
| Date | Tuesday, December 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Toledo vs Louisville latest injuries
Toledo vs Louisville weather
Monitor gametime conditions with our College football weather info.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
