College football is back with a bang. The marquee matchup of the weekend goes down in Columbus as the No. 1 Texas Longhorns visit the No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes.
The defending National Champions replace both coordinators and plenty of proven producers throughout the roster, but how much of a step back will the Buckeyes take?
See why I’m riding with Texas with my early college football picks and predictions for Saturday, August 30.
Texas vs Ohio State predictions
Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.
Early Texas vs Ohio State spread pick: Texas +2.5 (-115 at FanDuel)
There aren’t one or two clear-cut favorites in college football this season, but there are a handful of “clear contenders” who we expect to see in the playoffs. Both the Texas Longhorns and Ohio State Buckeyes are among that elite group, and both should remain near the top of the sport.
Steve Sarkisian has signed four consecutive top-5 High School recruiting classes and has arguably the most talented roster in the country, making the Longhorns an appealing short underdog. Word around the program is that this could be Sark’s best defense since he’s been in Austin, which provides a solid foundation to complement quarterback Arch Manning’s high ceiling.
Ryan Day has to reload after losing both coordinators. This will be Brian Hartline’s first time calling plays, and it’ll be Matt Patricia’s first game in college since 2003.
The Buckeyes had 14 players who earned All-Big Ten recognition get drafted. Understandably, they’re the favorite at home, fresh off winning the National Championship. Still, they have much more turnover than their opponent, and that puts them at a disadvantage in this opening game.
Sark is a great game-planner and has had all offseason to prepare a loaded roster for Week 1.
Early Texas vs Ohio State total pick: Under 47.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
What’s the biggest concern for Texas’ offense? Assuming that Arch lives up to — or at least approaches — the hype, it’s an offensive line that must replace four starters. They’ll be fine in the long run, given the way they’ve recruited and developed, but the fact remains that this will be a green unit with a new quarterback going up against an elite defense.
The Buckeyes led the nation in EPA per play and limited opponents to 254.6 yards per game on 4.2 yards per play. They have arguably the best defensive player in the nation in safety Caleb Downs.
On the flip side, Ohio State will also have a new signal caller with redshirt freshman Julian Sayin assuming the QB1 role. He’ll face a Texas defense that ranked fifth in EPA per play while allowing just 283.4 yards per game on 4.4 yards per play.
Jeremiah Smith is a game-breaking presence out wide, but Texas did take him out of last year’s Cotton Bowl (one reception for three yards). The offense will click at some point, but maybe not in Week 1 with new pieces and a new play caller facing a stout defense?
Texas vs Ohio State odds
- Texas vs. Ohio State spread: Ohio State -2.5
- Texas vs. Ohio State moneyline: Texas +120, Ohio State -140
- Texas vs. Ohio State Over/Under: 50.5
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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