Texas A&M heads to Austin on Friday looking to stay unbeaten and lock up a berth in the SEC title game against Arch Manning and the rival Longhorns.
Plenty of pundits will tell you Texas has a real shot, plus a faint CFP hope.
My Texas A&M vs. Texas predictions are here to cut through that chatter.
So, check out my college football picks for this pivotal SEC clash set to kick off on Friday, November 28.
Texas A&M vs Texas prediction
Texas A&M vs Texas best bet: Texas A&M -2.5 (-110)
This is one of those situations where I just have to come out and say it.
I don’t understand this line at all.
Yes. This is a rivalry game, and the Texas Longhorns are at home. But have we not been watching the Longhorns all season? Yes. This is a talented roster. Except at the position where it matters the most. Arch Manning has just not been good enough.
Sure, Manning has some OK stats, but what I see is inflated numbers against bad teams, that have been padded by a lot of YAC yards. His reads are still too slow, and he has his uncle's penchant for throwing ducks without the timing or accuracy.
It’s stunning that a Texas team with this much talent ranks 87th in the country in offensive success rate. But here we are.
And the recent result against Georgia wasn’t surprising for those who have been paying attention. The Longhorns probably should have lost to Kentucky and Mississippi State before escaping vs. Vanderbilt.
So, when they finally came across a good team again, the result wasn’t shocking.
And that’s what the Texas A&M Aggies are. A really good team. Sure. They needed an epic comeback to beat South Carolina last week. But they did it.
Marcel Reed has developed into a dynamic quarterback while the Aggies defense is one of the best in the country at pressuring opposing quarterbacks into bad decisions.
As a result, Texas A&M enters this game in the Top 10 in both EPA per play and opponent EPA per play while leading the nation in sack rate.
We are getting the clearly better team at less than a field goal. That’s a deal I’d take any day of the year, let alone on Black Friday.
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Texas A&M vs Texas same-game parlay
As I said, Marcel Reed has become one of the more dynamic dual-threat QBs in the country. He's thrown for 2,752 yards with 25 touchdowns while adding another 395 yards and six scores on the ground and I’m betting he does he thing through the air and on the ground in this matchup against Texas.
Reed has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but two games this season, plus you can throw on Texas a bit. The Longhorns rank 70th in success rate on dropbacks and have multiple TD passes in each of their last three games. So, adding Over 1.5 touchdown passes to this SGP at plus money feels like a no-brainer.
Let’s also take Reed to go Over 26.5 rushing yards. While he’s definitely focused on becoming a better passer this season, he's still a threat to run, and this is a modest rushing total. A number he's eclipsed in eight games this season.
Texas A&M vs Texas SGP
- Texas A&M -2.5
- Marcel Reed Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Marcel Reed Over 26.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Manning keeps it grounded
Arch won't be effective moving the ball through the air so he'll try to make something happen on the ground. While Reed is lined up for a big day all around.
Texas A&M vs Texas SGP
- Marcel Reed Over 1.5 touchdown passes
- Marcel Reed touchdown
- Arch Manning Under 259.5 passing yards
- Arch Manning touchdown
Texas A&M vs Texas game predictions
Texas A&M vs Texas moneyline prediction
I know Texas won its other big rivalry game this season. But John Mateer won’t be two weeks off a hand surgery in this one. The Aggies are a really good team, and Texas has struggled against a strong pass rush. Texas A&M pulls out the win, stays undefeated and punches its ticket to the SEC title game.
Texas A&M vs Texas spread prediction
I honestly don’t think this spread is giving the Aggies enough respect while simultaneously overvaluing the Longhorns. If Texas A&M does win it certainly does so by at least a field goal.
Texas A&M vs Texas Over/Under prediction
I have a slight lean to the Under here as I worry how effective Texas’ offense will be in this matchup. They've played arguably five very good defensive teams this season: Georgia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Florida and Ohio State. The Under is 4-1 in those games.
Texas A&M vs Texas odds
- Spread: Texas A&M -2.5 | Texas +2.5
- Moneyline: Texas A&M -122 | Texas +104
- Over/Under: Over 52.5 | Under 52.5
Texas A&M vs Texas trend to know
Texas has only covered the Spread in five of their last 16 games for -7.10 Units and a -40% ROI. Find more college football betting trends for Texas A&M vs Texas.
How to watch Texas A&M vs Texas
| Location | DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium, Austin, TX |
| Date | Friday, November 28, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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