As bad as both the South Alabama Jaguars and the Georgia State Panthers are, they present an intriguing matchup in style. The Jaguars will emphasize the run all night long, while the Panthers will desperately throw the ball.
Only one of those approaches has yielded any amount of success this season. My South Alabama vs. Georgia State predictions and college football picks lean into the Jaguars’ offense, as suspect as it may seem on the surface.
The kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, October 23.
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South Alabama vs Georgia State prediction
South Alabama vs Georgia State best bet: South Alabama -6.5 (-110)
The gambling axiom that no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game is tested when a team is 1-6 outright and 2-5 against the spread. The South Alabama Jaguars may be just that bad.
The Jaguars lost to Arkansas State last week, falling 15-14 as a nine-point favorite. They are better than that, but only by so much.
South Alabama’s offense had actually been an asset in four of five FBS games before that faceplant.
At their best — statistically, against Tulane, Auburn, and Troy — the Jaguars have run the ball at least 15% more often than would be expected from an average team in a given game state. That should be emphasized against the Georgia State Panthers, suffering the ninth-worst rushing defense in the country in terms of expected points added per rush against, per CFB-graphs.com.
The Panthers have been utterly ineffective offensively, doing just about nothing well, though they insist on throwing the ball often. If South Alabama has any defensive strength — a notable “if” — it comes against the pass on a down-to-down basis.
The Jaguars have the advantage on both sides of the ball. No matter how bad South Alabama is, and it is, the Panthers should be more than a touchdown worse.
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South Alabama vs Georgia State same-game parlay
South Alabama runs the ball at the ninth-highest relative rate in the country, an offense that produces at a decent rate in all of reality despite the Jaguars’ atrocious season. Even amid the season’s struggles, Kentrel Bullock has averaged more than 4.5 yards per carry.
On the other side of the ball, Georgia State throws at the 10th-highest relative rate in the country. Facing any deficit should emphasize that tendency, taking carries away from Rashad Amos, who has already fallen short of this prop in each of his last five games against FBS competition.
South Alabama vs Georgia State SGP
- South Alabama -6.5
- Kentrel Bullock Over 85.5 rushing yards
- Rashad Amos Under 30.5 rushing yards
Our deep-ball SGP: A Bullock in a China Shop
Kentrel Bullock has scored at least one touchdown in five of seven games this season, including four of five against Group of Five competition. Combining his successes with an Under 55.5 may warrant some surprise, but every Bullock carry — and there should be many as he has averaged 17.7 carries this season — will shorten this Thursday night matchup.
South Alabama vs Georgia State SGP
- South Alabama -6.5
- Kentrel Bullock Over 85.5 rushing yards
- Rashad Amos Under 30.5 rushing yards
- Kentrel Bullock anytime touchdown
- Under 55.5
South Alabama vs Georgia State odds
- Spread: South Alabama -6.5 | Georgia State +6.5
- Moneyline: South Alabama -225 | Georgia State +188
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
South Alabama vs Georgia State trend to know
The loser will be eliminated from bowl eligibility, which is something to consider if one team is checked out early. Find more college football betting trends for South Alabama vs Georgia State.
How to watch South Alabama vs Georgia State
| Location | Center Parc Stadium, Atlanta, GA |
| Date | Thursday, October 23, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
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