Increasingly, we will remember the 2025 college football season for its off-field chaos. LSU firing Brian Kelly, despite owing him more than $50 million in a buyout, is merely the latest chapter in a season that will eventually see Penn State, Florida, and LSU all find new coaches. And we are not done yet.
Some of those moves can have on-field impacts. The troubles in Happy Valley inspire the first bet below, and the next expected brand-name firing sparks the second.
Winning those would help reset momentum here after going 0-5 last week, losing 5.55 units. It was immediately apparent that the week wouldn't be a good one, but it should have been far less miserable. We were doomed by Temple not covering in overtime and Oklahoma State failing to cover +38.5, partly because the opening kickoff was returned for a touchdown.
These are the ebbs and flows of sports gambling; placing 11 bets on Saturday morning in a weekly live Twitter stream yielded +5.37 units despite going just 5-6. May the tide now rise among these college football predictions and college football picks for Week 10.
College football predictions Week 10
| Pick | Odds |
|---|---|
 Ohio State -20.5 |
-110 |
 Auburn -10.5 |
-108 |
 Texas Tech -7 |
-110 |
 / Memphis vs. Rice Over 49.5 |
-110 |
 North Carolina moneyline |
+115 |
Ohio State -20.5
This season’s off-field drama and laughs have overshadowed some of the awkwardness we always knew to expect this fall. The ripest example should come in Columbus, the former home of Penn State Nittany Lions defensive coordinator Jim Knowles.
His departure from the national champion Ohio State Buckeyes was slow enough that the school included him in the championship parade plans, but quick enough that he was asked not to attend. In the offseason, Knowles was a bit vocal about that exchange and why he left when he did.
“Then they asked me not to come to the parade,” he said in the summer. “So then you’re like, ‘OK, honestly, the writing is on the wall.’ Now it becomes something. … I hadn’t made any decisions, but you just kind of feel like — I wouldn’t say I’m not wanted here — but you just feel like, OK, now it’s gotten awkward.”
As in all of life, that is only one side of the story. Ohio State has stayed largely mum on the timing that led to Knowles’ departure, but it's safe to assume the Buckeyes did not appreciate his exit and certainly did not appreciate him talking about it in ways that suggest the university compelled one of the country’s best defensive coordinators to depart.
That displeasure should be seen on the field on Saturday. Ohio State head coach Ryan Day has absolutely no reason to go easy on Penn State, and offensive coordinator Brian Hartline should enjoy beating his former colleague’s defense.
The Buckeyes have not lost against the spread this season, going 6-0-1 ATS with the push coming as a four-touchdown favorite against Ohio, while the Nittany Lions are 1-6 ATS, though that one cover did come in their most recent game, a one-point loss as a three-point underdog at Iowa.
Trusting Ohio State to exact some PR revenge on Penn State could also lead to trusting the Over 43.5 in this game (-108 at DraftKings), but as long as this hook is inside three touchdowns, the Buckeyes against the spread warrants your most faith, albeit at Knowles’ expense.
Auburn -10.5
Speaking of off-field drama, the king stays the king. No program trades in off-field drama better than the Auburn Tigers, not even LSU or Michigan. And no coach excels in finding off-field drama better than Tigers head coach Hugh Freeze, not even Brian Kelly or Deion Sanders.
Freeze has yet to have a regular season above .500 at Auburn, and at 4-4, this third season doesn't look too encouraging. He has not been fired, though his $15.4 million buyout doesn't look too restrictive, either.
Despite last week’s win at Arkansas ending a four-game losing streak, it is distinctly possible that Freeze’s next loss will be his last at Auburn. But that loss should not come against the worst team in the SEC.
Most specifically, that loss shouldn't come against the worst offense in the SEC. Kentucky’s offense does nothing well. The nicest thing that can be said about it is that it runs for a few yards at a time at a modest rate. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, Auburn’s defense ranks No. 3 in the country in rushing success rate against, per CFB-graphs.com.
Against that defensive front, and with Kentucky’s reprehensible passing game, betting the Wildcats’ Team Total Under 16.5 (-105 at DraftKings) typically would warrant a bounty of pondering, but given Freeze’s need to win convincingly, taking the Tigers against the spread is the better approach.
Texas Tech -7
Credit to Kansas State. Next season, the Wildcats will face Kansas players who have never known a world in which the Jayhawks win the Sunflower Showdown.
But that rivalry and its 17-game Kansas State winning streak have now become such focal points for both teams that the result should be removed from most considerations moving forward. Multiple Wildcats made it clear in the aftermath of their 42-17 delight last weekend that they had dialed up the intensity for their trip to Lawrence.
That creates a moment where Kansas State is both coming down emotionally and overvalued in the market. Take advantage of that moment.
Chris Klieman says Kansas State running back Dylan Edwards will be out again this week against Texas Tech.
— Kellis Robinett (@KellisRobinett) October 27, 2025
His injury still hasn't healed. Klieman adds that he has not spoken to Edwards about the possibility of redshirting up to this point.
If such a thought sounds too intangible for your investment, then also realize the Wildcats will need to be utterly one-dimensional against Texas Tech. The offseason stories of the Red Raiders’ investments into the roster did not emphasize enough just how good this defensive front would be. Texas Tech ranks No. 1 in the country in expected points added (EPA) per rush against. Kansas State’s offense ranks No. 92 in that regard.
Sure, the Wildcats have fared better lately, but they have yet to put together a game featuring a rushing performance that would be considered sustainably good. Expect it to look simply bad against the Red Raiders.
Memphis vs. Rice Over 49.5
Rice’s defense has not been good at any point this season, most certainly not in recent weeks. The Owls gave up 61 points in a rout at UTSA three weeks ago, and coughed up 34 points to UConn last weekend. The game preceding those two, against FAU, was even worse.
But Rice’s offense remains unique enough to be largely middling, at worst. Defenses need focus and discipline to keep up with the Owls’ version of a shotgun triple-option, many plays seemingly as focused horizontally as they are vertically.
Forgive Memphis if it isn't focused and disciplined this week. The Tigers just upset South Florida 34-31 in a last-second win, and they are a week away from hosting Tulane, a matchup carrying massive College Football Playoff implications.
Not to look ahead, but hooooo we have a good one coming next weekend, don't we?
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 28, 2025
Massive Playoff implications.
chart via @statsowar / cfb-graphs . com pic.twitter.com/lgfhRbUuXi
Not that Memphis’s defense is its best asset, anyway. The Tigers have a strong defense, No. 37 in the country in EPA against, but they are best driven by their offense.
An offense-driven team lacking focus and discipline this week is an ideal recipe for an Over.
North Carolina moneyline
There is an easy argument for North Carolina: The Tar Heels have come inches from wins in the last two weeks, competence finding Bill Belichick’s program. Those wins ATS should have both been outright upset victories, both as multi-score underdogs.
But the better argument for betting on North Carolina is that Syracuse’s offense has vanished since quarterback Steve Angeli tore his Achilles at Clemson. Since then, the Orange offense has been in the bottom 20% of expectations in three of four games, managing to be just about exactly average last week at Georgia Tech.
Let’s be clear here: “Exactly average” is not much in the way of praise.
Syracuse’s best showing, relative to expectations, included trailing 31-3 at SMU to start the month. The Orange scored 15 points in the fourth quarter to lessen the embarrassment and cover the spread, but that has been their only moment of success since Angeli’s injury.
In four games, Syracuse has managed two touchdowns before garbage time.
That offense should never be favored, not even against Bill Belichick.
Paused writing my Best Bets column to make/eat dinner. (Grilled chicken thighs, roasted potatoes/mushrooms/broccoli/brussels sprouts.)
— Douglas Farmer (@D_Farmer) October 29, 2025
Not gonna complain about the North Carolina moneyline moving to +115 from +110 while I was away. I'll take that.
My weekly CFB best bets column is 20-29-1 this season for -8.61 units.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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