The Indiana Hoosiers look to continue rolling towards the College Football Playoff with a trip to College Park on Saturday to face the Maryland Terrapins.
The Terps have lost three heartbreakers in a row, but have had a bye week to prepare for a Hoosier side that just obliterated UCLA by 50 points behind Heisman candidate Fernando Mendoza.
Read on to see why I’m keying on the other side of the ball for the Hoosiers in my Indiana vs. Maryland predictions and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
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Indiana vs Maryland prediction
Indiana vs Maryland best bet: Maryland team total Under 13.5 (-109)
The Maryland Terrapins scored 17 points in a loss to UCLA before the bye week. But seven of those points came via an eight-yard Pick-6 in the third quarter, with the other touchdown occurring late in the game to tie things up.
The Terps got 31 points in their loss to Nebraska, but one touchdown came from a short field after an interception, while another came via another Pick-6 for a 67-yard touchdown.
Against Washington, the Terps scored 20 points from 10 drives. But the two touchdowns came on drives that took a combined 25 plays to pick up 146 yards.
I mention this because the Indiana Hoosiers won’t be giving up those sorts of free scores, and putting together long drives against them is highly difficult. It’s even more difficult for a Maryland offense that often operates behind the chains, ranking 105th in early down EPA/play and 135th in EPA/rush.
Then again, that’s what an offensive success rate of 116th can do to a team. And the Terps have been able to get away with that against some programs who struggled against their defense, which ranks Top 10 in early down success rate and 15th in Net EPA.
But the Terps haven’t been able to turn that into wins against the three teams I mentioned. Despite those two interceptions for scores, the Huskers still dropped 34 points on the Terps, while UCLA and Washington picked up comeback victories.
And that UCLA defense that held Maryland to just 17 points? It gave up 56 to Indiana last week.
The Hoosiers will punish this Maryland team on both sides of the ball. Once they build their lead and force the Terps to become one-dimensional, it will be over for an offense that ranks 104th in available yards, 92nd in quality drive rate, and 106th in points per quality drive.
Indiana vs Maryland same-game parlay
Kaelon Black is part of a two-headed monster lining up in Indiana’s backfield with Fernando Mendoza, with double-digit carries in four of five conference games. He’s good for at least one big run a game, which has helped him pick up 134 yards over the last two contests.
I like him to top 50 yards on the ground against a Maryland defense that has given up 16 rushing plays of 10+ yards through four Big 10 games.
DeJuan Williams is going to find it difficult to run the ball against this Indiana defense, but he’s become a preferred target of Malik Washington over the last two games. After catching five passes for 35 yards against the Huskers, he picked up 86 yards on seven catches against the Bruins.
Indiana is allowing just 5.8 yards per pass attempt, which is right on par with both UCLA and Nebraska. This is a great number for the back to hit, given how often Washington is likely going to need to simply dump it off.
Indiana vs Maryland 3-leg SGP
- Maryland team total Under 13.5
- Kaelon Black Over 50.5 rushing yards
- DeJuan Williams Over 22.5 receiving yards
Our deep-ball SGP: Mendoza makes it happen
Mendoza has run for at least 18 yards in his last four games, averaging 30 yards a contest, and is operating behind a line allowing just one sack a game in conference play. I expect he’ll find running lanes and will keep multiple drives going with his legs.
Indiana vs Maryland 4-leg SGP
- Maryland team total Under 13.5
- Kaelon Black Over 50.5 rushing yards
- DeJuan Williams Over 22.5 receiving yards
- Fernando Mendoza Over 19.5 rushing yards
Indiana vs Maryland odds
- Spread: Indiana -21.5 | Maryland +21.5
- Moneyline: Indiana -2500 | Maryland +1200
- Over/Under: Over 50.5 | Under 50.5
Indiana vs Maryland trend to know
Maryland has hit the 1Q Under in 9 of their last 11 games (+6.80 Units / 53% ROI). Find more college football betting trends for Indiana vs Maryland.
How to watch Indiana vs Maryland
| Location | SECU Stadium, College Park, MD |
| Date | Saturday, November 1, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | CBS |
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