A great matchup awaits us between the Tennessee Volunteers and the Oklahoma Sooners in SEC play.
For each of these teams, this matchup will likely serve as a playoff elimination game of sorts, with the loser already having three losses.
I've identified some nice value on the board with my three favorite Oklahoma vs. Tennessee player props and college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee props for Week 10
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 John Mateer |
Over 34.5 rushing yards | -114 |
 Star Thomas |
Over 22.5 rushing yards | -114 |
| Deion Burks |
Anytime touchdown | +170 |
John Mateer Over 34.5 rushing yards
This feels close to a no-brainer in this matchup. John Mateer looks fully healthy, and the Tennessee Volunteers has allowed big plays at every level for most of the season.
Coming in, the Vols' defense is roughly average overall, which is a generous description. More specifically, they rank 96th nationally in EPA allowed per rush, a figure that puts them near the bottom of the SEC against the run.
Mateer has functioned as almost the primary ball carrier for the Oklahoma Sooners, logging double-digit carries in four of seven games, including one while he was banged up. He has cleared this number only twice, but context matters.
He has rarely faced a rush defense this soft with as little sack risk as Tennessee presents. The Vols do not generate much disruption, sitting below the league average in havoc metrics, so designed quarterback runs and scrambles should get to the second level more often.
Fewer negative plays also raise his floor, which is crucial when projecting rushing totals.
Combine a healthy workload, a favorable defensive profile, and limited backfield penetration, and you get a strong setup for Mateer on the ground.
Star Thomas Over 22.5 rushing yards
This one is interesting because the number seems anchored to Star Thomas's uneven volume in recent weeks rather than his role or efficiency.
On Saturday against Kentucky, he handled ten carries in a blowout and averaged 6.4 yards per rush. The week before at Alabama, he saw only three carries yet produced 8.6 yards per attempt.
The gap in usage does not match the quality of his touches. In this matchup, his efficiency should earn a larger share of the work, which makes this line look short.
Oklahoma's defense is elite, and there is no real debate about that. However, that strength is actually what supports the play.
Tennessee will need to vary looks to generate explosives, and Thomas is the clear home run threat in this backfield.
Thomas hits crease runs with confidence, and turns second-level space into chunk gains.
Against a disciplined unit, the Volunteers should prioritize players who can flip the field in one snap.
Deion Burks anytime touchdown
This might end up being my favorite prop of the bunch. We've noted already that the Tennessee offense has a myriad of issues, but on the flip side, it certainly knows how to score.
That game script should lead Oklahoma to chase points at a few junctures in this game and thus force some plays downfield.
Who better to profit from that than Deion Burks?
Burks scored two touchdowns in the opening two games of the season and has not reached paydirt since.
Conveniently, the games in which he scored touchdowns also came in the games in which he had his longest two receptions of the season: 28 yards against Illinois State and 34 yards against Michigan.
When I look at the defense of Tennessee, I see a unit that can be OK from down to down, but where things get messy is slowing explosive plays.
As bad as it has been against the run, it has been worse against the pass, ranking in the bottom 10th percentile in explosive plays allowed.
I have to think Oklahoma sees that and will look to get their most explosive pass catcher involved as much as possible.
Bet on CFB at FanDuel!
Make your college football bets at FanDuel, America's No. 1 sportsbook! Sign up now and by placing $5 on your first bet, you could win $300 in bonus bets if your wager is a winner!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
