Two SEC squads that have been through more than their share of surprises this season will face off on Saturday as the No. 20 Texas Longhorns host the No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores in Austin.
Both teams will need their biggest offensive weapons to show up in this one, and I’m targeting both starting quarterbacks — in different ways — in my Vanderbilt vs. Texas player props.
Let’s break down my free college football picks for Saturday, November 1.
Vanderbilt vs Texas props for Week 10
| Player | Pick |  |
|---|---|---|
 Diego Pavia |
Over 171.5 passing yards | -114 |
 Arch Manning |
Anytime touchdown | +150 |
| Ryan Wingo |
Over 50.5 receiving yards | -114 |
Diego Pavia Over 171.5 passing yards
Diego Pavia has quietly had a solid collegiate career, throwing 74 touchdown passes against 24 interceptions with a 145.9 quarterback rating with the New Mexico State Aggies and the Vanderbilt Commodores.
But not only has his senior year been his best, it comes in a campaign in which the Commodores are in serious contention for a spot in the College Football Playoff.
Pavia’s numbers have been down in the last two weeks, but that doesn’t change the fact that he threw for at least 177 yards in each of his first six games this season, including against stout defenses like the Alabama Crimson Tide and South Carolina Gamecocks.
Vanderbilt doesn’t run the ball much, and while the Commodores are efficient when they do, the Texas Longhorns has been among the best at stopping the rushing game in the nation, allowing just 2.4 yards per attempt.
That leads me to think that Vanderbilt will have Pavia putting the ball in the air in this game, returning to his typical numbers and hitting the Over on his yardage prop.
Arch Manning anytime touchdown
A lot has been made of Arch Manning’s inconsistent and often mediocre play at quarterback for Texas.
Some of that may be due to the outsized expectations brought on by his name and reputation, but there’s no doubt that there have been some awful outings as well, including his performances against the UTEP Miners and the Kentucky Wildcats.
But while Manning’s arm has sometimes disappointed, he has been able to make contributions on the ground as well. Like most of the other quarterbacks in his famous family, Manning isn’t a huge threat on the ground.
But he has shown that he can occasionally break a long run, and he has scored six touchdowns with his legs so far this season.
Vandy’s defense has been tough this year, allowing just 18.8 ppg. Texas will be using all of its weapons in an attempt to move the ball, and it’s likely we end up with some goal-to-go situations near the endzone for the Longhorns during this game.
Presuming he is able to play on Saturday, Manning is an excellent choice to find his way in for a touchdown in one of those spots at +150 odds.
Ryan Wingo Over 50.5 receiving yards
Whatever you may think of Manning’s overall body of work at quarterback for Texas, he has had some good moments behind center this season.
Many of those have involved hooking up with Longhorns wide receiver Ryan Wingo, who leads the team in both catches (29) and yardage (504).
Wingo has been a consistent presence for Texas throughout his sophomore season, catching at least two passes in each game. In three of his last five outings, he’s gone for at least 73 yards, catching four balls on four of those occasions.
And his biggest game of the year was just last week, when he took in five passes for 184 yards.
Texas will certainly try to throw the ball against a Vanderbilt team allowing opponents to complete 66.3% of their passes and giving up 6.7 yards per attempt through the air.
Wingo should be able to take advantage, and with a very reasonable total to hit, I love the Over on his receiving yardage prop this week.
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