College Football Week 3 Odds, Picks and Predictions: Don't Underestimate These Bulldogs

Some college football handicappers base their entire weekly process around the situational spot. When might a team be looking ahead to a bigger game and overlooking the coming opponent? Or, in the case of two of my forthcoming picks, when might a team feel its back is up against the wall and rally in response? The flip side of that is when could a team be zoning out a bit more than has yet to be seen on the field? That also plays into two of the below thoughts.

All of these approaches come down to the basic premise of timing. And teams can develop reputations for that. Repeatedly collapse in the big moment? We used to call that Clemson-ing. Consider it comparable to the friend who misses every signal and never realizes his crush was into him until that time has passed.

Roll the dice in the most absurd fashion, ignoring all savvy concepts of clock management, chew some grass, and hope for the best? Les Miles built a brand off it, even if it was behavior he truly displayed only a few times. Eventually, coaches and teams lose the benefit of the doubt.

And at 5-1 season-to-date, this run may reach Ed Orgeron-esque heights before, well, Orgeron’s LSU farewell had its joys.

Anyway, let’s dig in on two teams that need wins and two teams that may be fading rather early in this season, with some overlap in the first and boldest pick as the Triple Option tackles Covers’ best college football picks for Week 3.

College football Week 3 picks

• Ohio ML (+143)
• Indiana +10 (-110)
• Fresno State -3 (-110)

Picks made on September 14. Click each pick to read full analysis.

College football Week 3 odds, picks, and predictions

Iowa State vs Ohio predictions: Ohio moneyline (+143)

The Ohio Bobcats need to find some offensive rhythm before MACtion begins next week. Ohio entered the season as the clear frontrunner in the East Division. After three games, it has averaged just 19 points per game, not enough to even pretend to contend in the MAC.

Much of that has tied to star quarterback Kurtis Rourke’s injury at the end of the first quarter in the season opener in Week 0, far enough ago that it may evade many memories. Before the injury, Rourke was cooking, completing 8 of 10 passes for 75 yards, and then the wheels fell off without him against a stout San Diego State defense, hence the 20-13 loss.

Rourke returned last week, his injury not as severe as initially feared, but he was very much not cooking. Rourke threw for 203 yards and one touchdown on 18-for-29 passing, adding two interceptions. 

Call that merely rust because Rourke is too good of a prospect to struggle like that for long. Now Ohio’s back is up against the wall and it needs its star to return to form.

Iowa State will provide a chance for that rebound. In many ways, its dismal offense is what will give Rourke his chance. The Cyclones struggle in just about every way on offense. Chalk that up to head coach Matt Campbell, chalk that up to myriad suspensions for illicit gambling — folks, please remember, geolocation software is terrifyingly precise — or chalk that up to a roster that was not overloaded with talent in the first place. Regardless of the root cause, it is a truth: Iowa State’s offense is not good.

And Ohio’s defense is good, giving up 13.3 points per game. The quality of opponent does not matter when a scoring defense tally is that low.

A home underdog with the better quarterback needing to reassert himself creates value, and not just value in covering the field goal spread. Rourke needs a win. Iowa State’s season is about to spiral, Campbell’s seat is about to heat up, and the Cyclones offense has shown nowhere near enough verve to overcome the Bobcats’ defense.

PICK: Ohio moneyline (+143 at BetRivers)

Louisville vs Indiana predictions: Indiana +10

The Indiana Hoosiers also need a win. Capital N Need. Sure, they beat Indiana State last week, but a 41-7 rout of an FCS opponent is not gonna change the narrative around head coach Tom Allen. After Indiana went a combined 14-7 in 2019-20, it has limped to 7-19 since. Worse yet, the Hoosiers went 0-8 to close 2021 and 1-8 to close 2022.

If Indiana does not rack up a couple of wins right now, it may struggle to notch any the rest of the season. On some level, the coaching staff may recognize that and empty the playbook a bit more than usual for this non-conference game.

And Louisville may be ripe for such exploitation. Cardinals head coach Jeff Brohm is working outside of his comfort zone.

In his six years at Purdue, Brohm’s offense never ranked lower than No. 17 in the country in pass attempts per game and never averaged fewer than 37.8. Narrow that to his last four seasons in West Lafayette and Brohm’s offense never ranked lower than No. 7 in pass attempts per game, never averaging fewer than 41.6 per game.

That kind of offense would have been a complete shift for Louisville compared to 2022, so Brohm is easing into his preferred lifestyle, dropping back to pass only 66 times through two games and running the ball 11 times more than that.

Some of Brohm’s reasoning for this surprisingly conservative approach may be the same reason many pundits were irrationally high on the Cardinals this offseason. Bringing in quarterback Jack Plummer from Cal created a reunion; Plummer played for Brohm for three seasons at Purdue before heading to the West Coast for one year, and in that West Lafayette stretch, he threw 10 interceptions against 25 touchdowns. Worse yet, the Boilermakers went 5-9 in games where Plummer was the primary quarterback.

Now, Plummer has thrown three interceptions in two games. Against an FCS foe last week, he put together only five quality drives on nine possessions behind center. The Cardinals are far from fine-tuned.

That should create enough of a window for Allen to at least keep Saturday afternoon competitive at a point in his Hoosiers tenure when he desperately needs to show that kind of pulse.

PICK: Indiana +10 (-110 at Caesars)

Fresno State vs Arizona State predictions: Fresno State -3

The Fresno State Bulldogs opened the season with a narrow 39-35 win at Purdue, a win that was not as close as that score seemed. The Boilermakers struck from 84 yards out in the first minutes of the game and then enjoyed a 98-yard kickoff return touchdown to open the second half. Fresno State outgained Purdue by 124 yards and was clearly the better team.

Remove a -1 turnover ratio, those two big plays and nearly double the penalty yards and it would have turned into a rout.

How would Fresno State be viewed right now if it had opened its season that strongly? Would it be more clear that last week’s 34-31 double-overtime win against Eastern Washington was most likely the result of a look-ahead lapse?

The Bulldogs return most of their defense from last season, including at least one proven veteran at each level. Now they get to feast on a freshman quarterback playing behind a collapsing offensive line. Arizona State is down two offensive line starters from their Week 1 lineup, and after right tackle Emmit Bohle went down against Oklahoma State, quarterback Jaden Rashada became completely ineffective.

In a 27-15 loss, the Sun Devils did not score again after Bohle’s season-ending injury, Rashada was sacked three times, and he threw an interception.

Losing a right tackle in the midst of a game is a tougher adjustment than with a week’s warning, but Arizona State already had one of the worst offensive lines on the West Coast. Losing multiple starters will compound that deficiency, and Bulldogs head coach Jeff Tedford has been around long enough to know how to best capitalize.

The Sun Devils season began harshly when the Arizona State administration committed to a voluntary bowl ban. Head coach Kenny Dillingham has done an impressive job manufacturing any semblance of want-to from his locker room the last two weeks, but in each instance, the Sun Devils disappointed on the field, particularly in the second half. Southern Utah outscored Arizona State 14-3 in the second half, and Oklahoma State won after the break 17-0. Again, giving Tedford that kind of an edge will be worth more than a field goal, not to mention the Sun Devils' failing offensive line or the market underrating Fresno State in general.

PICK: Fresno State -3 (-110 at FanDuel)

Week 3 odds and upcoming games

Stay updated with the latest picks, odds, and news! Tap the to add us to your favorites on Google News to never miss a story.

Pages related to this topic