Think of this matchup as a College Football Playoff eliminator even though both the Oklahoma Sooners (+590) and Tennessee Volunteers (+310) are already longshots to reach the postseason, according to FanDuel’s odds. The loser here will fall to three losses, effectively ending any remaining Playoff hopes.
In my Oklahoma vs. Tennessee predictions and college football picks, I’m fading the Volunteers, as their chances of keeping their Playoff dreams alive appear slim at best.
Kickoff comes at 7:30 p.m. ET on Saturday, November 1.
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Oklahoma vs Tennessee prediction
Oklahoma vs Tennessee best bet: Oklahoma moneyline (+122)
Tennessee could genuinely claim a well-rounded team last season, the rare moment Josh Heupel could trust his defense as much, if not more, than his offense. But that was last season.
The Volunteers are now back to being a one-sided SEC imposter. Tennessee’s offense can still produce — No. 12 in expected points added (EPA) per snap, per CFB-graphs.com, hence scoring 40 or more points in five of seven games this season — but it falls into disarray against the best competition. Alabama held the Volunteers to 20 points in a blowout on the third Saturday of October.
And Tennessee cannot defend. It ranks No. 43 in defensive EPA, which may sound decent but does, in fact, rank No. 14 in the SEC, ahead of only Kentucky and Arkansas. The Volunteers have given up at least 31 points in each of their last four games and in all five of their SEC games this season.
This is the Heupel we know and do not respect.
This faulty defense’s greatest failure comes against the run, ranking No. 49 in EPA per rush against (No. 14 in the SEC), No. 85 in late-downs defense, and No. 125 in rushing success rate against. Oklahoma should be able to run as it chooses.
So dominating Tennessee on the ground will shorten this game, keep the ball out of that dynamic offense’s hands, and raise the underdog’s floor. Those thoughts alone prove the value at +122. Add in that the Sooners may have the best defensive front in the country, and it quickly becomes possible that nothing goes well for the Vols as their Playoff hopes die.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee same-game parlay
Tennessee struggles against the run, particularly on a down-to-down basis. The Vols rank No. 123 in short-yardage and goal-line stops, per CFB-graphs.com, and that kind of weakness should be best exploited by Oklahoma's newest bellcow back, Xavier Robinson. He has taken 20 carries for 167 yards and three touchdowns in the last two weeks, lessening Tory Blaylock's workload.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee SGP
- Oklahoma moneyline
- Xavier Robinson Touchdown
- Oklahoma Team Total Over 26.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Sooners stars ball out
Tennessee’s defensive front logs some of the most damaging sacks in the country, and it excels at containing quarterbacks within the pocket. Oklahoma star John Mateer should find some moments of success on designed runs, but when his only successes come from designed carries, his stats should struggle.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee SGP
- Oklahoma moneyline
- Xavier Robinson Touchdown
- Oklahoma Team Total Over 26.5
- John Mateer Under 34.5 rushing yards
Oklahoma vs Tennessee game predictions
Oklahoma vs Tennessee moneyline prediction
An underdog with the edge on both sides of the ball in late-down conversions and in short-yardage and goal-line situations is an underdog with an edge on the margins. Those margins often dictate upsets.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee spread prediction
A spread of -2.5 matters more and more in college football as coaches better understand when to attempt two-point conversions. With that in mind, and recognizing Josh Heupel is one likely to lean into that understanding, the underdog’s +2.5 holds even more weight.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee Over/Under prediction
Tennessee has hung points in every SEC game, yes, but three of those opponents were among the SEC’s five-worst defenses — and remember, the Volunteers are another one of those five-worst defenses. Even Georgia’s defense ranks only No. 7 in the SEC.
Against the No. 2 defense in the SEC, Tennessee scored just 20 points, and the game fell short of its total. Oklahoma’s defense is better than Alabama’s, while its offense is notably worse. Expect this to also fall short of its total of 55.5.
Oklahoma vs Tennessee odds
- Spread: Oklahoma +2.5 | Tennessee -2.5
- Moneyline: Oklahoma +128 | Tennessee -152
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 | Under 55.5
Oklahoma vs Tennessee trend to know
Seven of Oklahoma’s eight games this season have gone Under their totals, falling short of bookmakers’ expectations by an average of 8.75 points per game, even when including last week’s Over against Mississippi. Find more college football betting trends for Oklahoma vs Tennessee.
How to watch Oklahoma vs Tennessee
| Location | Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN |
| Date | Saturday, November 1, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV | ABC |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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