Two quarterbacks off to vastly different starts will face off on Saturday as the Michigan Wolverines host the Oklahoma Sooners.
I'm looking at John Mateer to continue his growth while expecting the Sooners to shut down the struggling Bryce Underwood in my Oklahoma vs. Michigan quarterback picks below.
Let's jump into more Oklahoma vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks for Week 2.
Best Oklahoma vs Michigan QB prop picks
For help understanding probabilities, please see our odds calculator.
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
 John Mateer Over 1.5 passing touchdowns |
49% |
 Bryce Underwood Under 162.5 passing yards |
57% |
Percentages courtesy of ProphetX, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Oklahoma QB pick: John Mateer Over 1.5 passing TDs
John Mateer didn't find the same success last season with Oklahoma that he enjoyed during his 2024 campaign with Washington State, throwing for just 14 touchdowns against 11 interceptions. However, there were signs that these were growing pains that Mateer grew out of as the season progressed.
Mateer threw for two touchdowns in each of his last three games last season, including in a playoff loss to Alabama. He started strong this year with three TD tosses in his first game, albeit against an outmatched UTEP squad.
Western Michigan didn't get much yardage through the air against Michigan last week, but the Broncos did complete 15 of 21 passes. Mateer should enjoy similar efficiency, but with better weapons to push the ball downfield.
I'm backing Mateer to tally at least two touchdown passes on Saturday, and I would play this to 55%.
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Michigan QB pick: Bryce Underwood Under 162.5 passing yards
The story remains the same for Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood: tons of talent, but little in the way of results to back up that potential.
Underwood threw for just 170 yards and a touchdown with an interception against Western Michigan, and as has been discussed to death at this point, 47 yards of that total arguably should have never counted.
Oklahoma is not the team for Underwood to get right against. The Sooners posted a -0.15 defensive EPA per dropback in 2025, seventh-best in the nation. They're also coming off a shutout against UTEP during which they allowed just 86 passing yards, and Oklahoma head coach Brent Venables wasn't even completely satisfied with how his defense played.
This will be a long day for Underwood, and I'm taking him to pass for Under 162.5 yards at 60% or lower.
Oklahoma vs Michigan QB combo
- John Mateer Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
- Bryce Underwood Under 162.5 passing yards
I'm expecting Oklahoma to win this game, but it won't be a blowout, meaning Michigan will stay relatively balanced. It's also unclear whether Underwood can threaten to do much against the Sooners' secondary in any case.
That makes these two picks worthy of a combo bet, as they both fit neatly into our likely game script.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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