Missouri heads to Lawrence today for a high-stakes Border War matchup against Kansas.
My Missouri vs. Kansas predictions break down whether laying 5.5 points with Mizzou makes sense, or if the market is giving the home underdog too much respect.
Check out all my college football picks for Week 2, with kickoff from Lawrence, Kan. set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
TOP PICK
Who will win Missouri vs Kansas: Kansas +5.5
Missouri beat Kansas 42-31 as a 5.5-point home favorite last season, and Mizzou returns at the same spread this year. That number looks questionable given how similar these teams are from a personnel standpoint.
Mizzou returns 12 starters after bringing back 15 last season, while the Jayhawks improved from 10 returning starters to 12, according to college football guru Phil Steele. Both teams also have new starting quarterbacks and lost three of their top four receivers.
Week 1 did little to separate them. Missouri beat Arkansas-Pine Bluff 54-14 but failed to cover as a 56.5-point favorite, while Kansas covered in a 51-6 rout of Long Island University as a 44.5-point favorite.
Neither result came against meaningful competition, but Kansas at least exceeded market expectations in Week 1.
With limited evidence of a talent gap, Missouri -5.5 looks like a steep price.
COVERS INTEL: Kansas is 6-0 against the spread as a home underdog since 2023 with a +12.6 spread differential. 
Missouri vs Kansas Over/Under pick: Under 50.5
Both teams scored 50+ points in their openers, which could create plenty of Over interest with the total sitting at 50.5. Add a nationally televised FOX matchup to the equation, and the public could be enticed to chase the recent offensive production.
I'm not buying it. This is a step up in competition for both teams, and they won't be able to score at will like last week.
It is that deep. pic.twitter.com/4BEcdbLv7S
— Kansas Football (@KU_Football) September 10, 2026
Missouri vs Kansas combo
Logically speaking, the underdog is correlated with the Under. Think about it: If there are fewer points scored, that’s better for the team getting points. Right?
This 50.5 total is a lot of optimism in offenses with new quarterbacks who aren’t exactly offensive juggernauts historically.
Missouri vs Kansas combo
- Kansas +5.5
- Under 50.5
- Kansas +3.5 1H
Missouri vs Kansas prop: Kansas +3.5 first-half spread
I’m not getting cute by betting Mizzou to cover the first-half spread and Kansas to cover the full-game spread. Instead, I’m keeping it simple and using a couple of trends to support my straightforward look.
Missouri has only hit the first-half moneyline in four of its last 10 games dating back to last season, and the Jayhawks have the ability to keep this within a FG in the opening 30.
Missouri vs Kansas odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
- Spread: Missouri -5.5 | Kansas +5.5
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 (50%) | Under 51.5 (51%)
- Moneyline: Missouri 66% | Kansas 34%
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Missouri vs Kansas weather
The weather forecast is calling for temperatures in the low-80s with calm winds and no chance of rain. Weather should have little impact on this game.
Check out our college football weather page for up-to-date info on every matchup.
Missouri vs Kansas trend to know
Missouri is 3-1 against the spread in its last four meetings with the Big 12. Find more college football betting trends for Missouri vs. Kansas.
How to watch Missouri vs Kansas
| Location | David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, Kan. |
| Date | Friday, Sept. 11, 2026 |
| Kickoff | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Missouri vs Kansas latest injuries
Check out our college football injuries page for updates on every team.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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