The Notre Dame Fighting Irish can no longer take a week off. They can no longer miss a beat. If they have College Football Playoff aspirations, losing to Northern Illinois last week put everything in jeopardy.
And now Notre Dame may or may not have injury worries around star transfer quarterback Riley Leonard. Is that uncertainty enough reason to back the Purdue Boilermakers in this afternoon's in-state rivalry?
My Notre Dame vs. Purdue predictions do not think so, trusting the Irish away from home in my free college football picks before kickoff at 3:30 ET on Saturday, September 14.
Notre Dame vs Purdue prediction
My best bet
Notre Dame -10 (-110 at BetMGM)
My analysis
A week ago, this spread would have hung around -14, Notre Dame perhaps favored by even the hook, -14.5. Then the Irish lost outright as four-touchdown favorites.
There should absolutely be a reaction to that. It was a blown opportunity in the most extreme of ways. But no team is as good or as bad as its most recent game. Remembering that is Gambling 101.
So this falling to -10 is an overreaction, not that this entire handicap can be that simple.
As more information comes out this week, it is rather clear part of Notre Dame’s debacle is tied to quarterback Riley Leonard’s non-throwing shoulder, reportedly injured early in the game, perhaps as early as the first Irish drive. Notre Dame has downplayed the injury, leaving Leonard off the Monday injury report entirely.
That may be gamesmanship, it may be sincere, it may be somewhere between the two. Regardless, adjusting an offensive game plan on the fly because your running-threat quarterback is now in too much pain to run effectively will dampen most offenses, and it certainly did so for the Irish. Adjusting one with a week’s notice is far less worrying.
Notre Dame should turn to its dynamic backfield. Purdue should be particularly susceptible to repeated rushes, giving up a successful run on far too many attempts. With the likes of sophomore Jeremiyah Love running the ball, any successful run can become an explosive play.
The Irish defense held up last week. There is no reason to doubt it. There will not be all season. Notre Dame covering a double-digit spread is entirely a question of its offense showing up, and overreacting to last week’s injury-aided failure would be a mistake when the spread has fallen to just 10 points.
Notre Dame vs Purdue same-game parlay (SGP)
Notre Dame -9.5
Purdue team total Under 18.5 points
Jeremiyah Love anytime touchdown
Notre Dame’s defense got gashed for a few big plays early in the loss to Northern Illinois, a credit to the Huskies’ scheming as much as anything else. And then the Irish offense gifted Northern Illinois a pair of short fields, yielding 13 of its 16 points. The final Huskies’ field goal also came on a drive starting at about midfield.
After those three drives, Notre Dame gave up 209 yards on 50 plays, a 4.2 yards per play average. The Irish defense held up fine. And with two All-Americans in the secondary in junior cornerback Benjamin Morrison and senior safety Xavier Watts, it should excel against Purdue’s pass-happy offense.
Returning to those fundamentals should mirror the Notre Dame offensive return to the rushing game. And if Leonard is at all uneasy running the ball, that should mean only more touches for Love near the goal line.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Notre Dame vs Purdue odds
Notre Dame vs Purdue live odds
Notre Dame vs Purdue opening odds
- Spread: Notre Dame -12.5 | Purdue +12.5
- Moneyline: Notre Dame -500 | Purdue +360
- Over/Under: Over 45.5 | Under 45.5
Odds courtesy of BetMGM
Notre Dame vs Purdue spread and Over/Under analysis
- Notre Dame opened as a 12-point favorite on Sunday afternoon, a number that ticked down to -10.5 on Monday and then reached as low as -9.5 at some books on Thursday.
- The total opened at some books as high as 47.5 before quickly falling to 45.5 on Sunday and remaining there through the week.
- The universal and clear drop in the total is a reflection of doubt in Leonard’s running ability. It has always been a crucial part of his game, and losing it could easily turn a touchdown drive into a field goal for the Irish.
Notre Dame vs Purdue betting trend to know
In his two-plus seasons as a head coach, Marcus Freeman is 8-5 outright at Notre Dame Stadium and 7-6 against the spread. Anywhere else, he is 11-5 both outright and ATS. Find more college football betting trends for Notre Dame vs Purdue.
https://x.com/D_Farmer/status/1834304946113777973
Notre Dame vs Purdue game info
| Location: | Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN |
| Date: | Saturday, 9-14, 2024 |
| Kickoff: | 3:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | CBS |
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