Following a brutal loss to Wisconsin as a 10.5-point favorite, Penn State heads to Evanston looking to bounce back against Northwestern as I make my Penn State vs. Northwestern predictions.
Plenty of bettors are likely wanting to back Penn State. But my Week 5 college football picks explain why I’m leaning toward the home underdog during Northwestern’s first game at its brand-new stadium, along with why the Over on 46.5 points is intriguing.
Penn State vs Northwestern predictions
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
Enjoying Covers content? Add us as a preferred source on your Google account
Early Penn State vs Northwestern spread pick: Northwestern +2.5
If Northwestern is available at +3.5, the Wildcats are 100% going on my Week 5 card. People will likely be trampling each other to get their hands on Penn State -2.5 following its brutal loss to Wisconsin as a 10.5-point favorite. Grabbing the Nittany Lions at under a field goal in a bounce-back spot against poor little Northwestern feels appealing.
I’m not the biggest Wildcats fan, but the team has been looking solid out of the gate this season. The Wildcats beat South Dakota State 34-18 and Colorado 41-7, and then lost to No. 6 Indiana 29-23 this past week. Northwestern is 3-0 against the spread and 2-1 straight up.
This will also be the debut game at the brand-new Ryan Field for the Wildcats, which should bring out all the die-hard alumni to help will this squad to an outright win. This game will mean just as much to the Wildcats and their fans as it does to a team looking to rebound following a tough defeat.
Northwestern’s scrappiness makes it attractive if we can get the Wildcats at +3 or +3.5.
Start trading with Kalshi today!
Sign up now using our exclusive Kalshi promo code 'COVERS60' and trade $25 on any event contracts to get $60!
*Eligible U.S. locations only
Early Penn State vs Northwestern total pick: Over 46.4
With this matchup being so important for both teams, I expect both the Nittany Lions and Wildcats to come prepared, but I’m leaning toward the Over on 46.5.
This will be Northwestern’s lowest total of the season, while Penn State’s lowest came last week against Wisconsin at 43.5. That game still finished with 44 points despite the Nittany Lions struggling offensively.
Northwestern is 3-0 to the Over, while Penn State is 2-2. The samples are small, but the Wildcats have consistently been showing they can move the ball. I’m willing to back their team total as a way to correlate with the full-game over.
Plus, this will be just the second team Penn State has faced that will be able to consistently move the ball against its defense, as Marshall, Temple, and Buffalo combined for just 22 points against the Nittany Lions.
If Northwestern can score 20-plus points, I like the chances of this game clearing 46.5.
Penn State vs Northwestern odds
- Penn State vs Northwestern spread: Northwestern +2.5
- Penn State vs Northwestern moneyline: Penn State 56%, Northwestern 44%
- Penn State vs Northwestern Over/Under: 46.5
How to watch Penn State vs Northwestern
- Date: Saturday, Oct. 2, 2026, 8 p.m. ET
- City: Evanston, IL
- Venue: Ryan Field
- TV: FOX
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
