Shift your focus to Albuquerque for Saturday’s New Mexico Bowl, where the North Texas Mean Green take on the San Diego State Aztecs.
Both are among the top Group of 5 teams this bowl season, with the Aztecs chasing their 10th win and the Mean Green looking to reach 12 victories.
See why I’m backing the underdog with my North Texas vs. San Diego State predictions and college football picks for the New Mexico Bowl on December 27.
North Texas vs San Diego State predictions for the New Mexico Bowl
Who will win the New Mexico Bowl?
North Texas will snap a seven-game bowl losing streak, though, as my best bet breaks down, it won’t come easy.
Recent indicators suggest that the Mean Green will be essentially at full strength, and the offense boasts significantly more firepower than the Aztecs.
North Texas vs San Diego State best bet: San Diego State +6.5 (-110)
As is always necessary in the modern era of college football, this bowl game handicap should start with potential absences, opt-outs, and transfers. The biggest news comes on the coaching front, as the architects of two elite units will be absent after taking jobs at other schools.
North Texas will be without head coach Eric Morris, who left for Oklahoma State after leading the nation’s highest-scoring offense (44.8 ppg). Most key players are expected to play, though quarterback Drew Mestemaker will enter the portal, and star running back Caleb Hawkins (1,581 scrimmage yards, 26 TDs) may be limited by injury.
For San Diego State, defensive coordinator Rob Aurich took the same job at Nebraska, likely taking several contributors with him. SDSU ranked third in EPA per play and allowed just 266.7 yards per game.
The Mean Green struggled against run-heavy teams, needing overtime to beat Western Michigan and Army, while allowing 267 rushing yards per game to South Florida, Rice, and Tulane. Aztecs' fill-in QB Bert Emanuel Jr. is run-first and, along with Lucky Sutton (1,237 yards, 10 TDs), should find plenty of room against UNT’s porous rush defense (124th in rushing success rate, 126th in stuff rate).
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North Texas vs San Diego State same-game parlay
A San Diego State cover is closely correlated with the Under. The Aztecs are a top-10 coverage team (91.0 PFF grade), a necessary component when facing the nation’s leading passer in Mestemaker.
On the flip side, SDSU’s offensive game plan will involve a ton of running, as that’s what Emanuel does best. He’s an unproven passer, so Sean Lewis and company will seek to exploit UNT’s vulnerable rush defense as often as possible, which keeps the clock ticking.
North Texas vs San Diego State SGP
- San Diego State +6.5
- Under 53.5
North Texas vs San Diego State game predictions
North Texas vs San Diego State spread prediction
San Diego State will keep this game within the spread.
Sean Lewis’ squad is 9-3 ATS and has executed its preferred style of play.
North Texas vs San Diego State Over/Under prediction
There’s a stark contrast between these two teams: North Texas is 9-4 O/U, but San Diego State is 3-9 O/U.
Since we’re taking the Aztecs against the spread, we’ll bet on them cashing an Under ticket for the seventh consecutive game.
North Texas vs San Diego State odds
- Spread: North Texas -3 (-115) | San Diego State +3 (-105)
- Moneyline: North Texas -160 | San Diego State +135
- Over/Under: Over 55.5 (-110) | Under 55.5 (-110)
North Texas vs San Diego State trend to know
North Texas is 2-6 ATS in its last eight bowl games. Find more college football betting trends for North Texas vs San Diego State.
How to watch North Texas vs San Diego State
| Location | University Stadium, Albuquerque, NM |
| Date | Saturday, December 27, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 5:45 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
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North Texas vs San Diego State weather
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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