How low can Bill Belichick's North Carolina Tar Heels go? Fans would prefer not to find out.
North Carolina went 4-8 in 2025, finishing 2-6 in ACC play and falling well short of a 7.5-win total for the second straight season. The Tar Heels have not cleared the number in any graded season since 2022, and the market has responded by dropping the 2026 number to 4.5 (the program’s lowest total in this dataset) as books price in the possibility of continued decline under a new coaching staff.
Here’s a look at the recent history of North Carolina win totals, along with predictions on whether the Tar Heels will surpass or fall short of their 2026 number of 4.5:
North Carolina 2026 win total predictions
(Confidence legend: 🟢 = high, 🟡 = medium, ⚪ = low)
| Name | Outlet | Pick | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Powers |  |
UNDER 4.5 | 🟡 |
| Rob Paul | |
UNDER 4.5 | 🟢 |
| Colby Marchio | |
UNDER 4.5 | ⚪ |
Covers expert betting predictions
Brad Powers
Last season was a disaster for Bill Belichick. Despite, returning only six starters I have upgraded North Carolina’s power rating 5.3 points. Still, I don’t see them getting to a bowl game this year as the Tar Heels play 11 Power conference opponents.
Rob Paul
It’s going to be borderline impossible for Bill Belichick to win more games in Year 2 than he did in his first season in Chapel Hill.
The Tar Heels have the toughest schedule in the country – No. 1 in SOS (.652) – and are banking on Billy Edwards Jr. at QB. Edwards was a pedestrian starter at Maryland two years ago and missed most of last season at Wisconsin with a knee injury.
Even with some real All-ACC talent in Jordan Shipp, Aidan Banfield, and Melkart Abou Jaoude, finding five wins on this schedule is a tall task. The Tar Heels rank No. 103 in returning production (44%, 80 starts) and bring just 28 of those starts via their transfer portal class. Bobby Petrino will need to do something special to save this offense.
Colby Marchio
Am I allowed to just say I do not feel confident in Chapel Bill?
Bill Belichick went the old fashioned route this offseason, and I am not talking about my favorite responsible adult beverage. He attacked the offseason by focusing on high school recruiting, also known as the Dabo method.
Last season was a mess, and I do not have much hope heading into year two.
North Carolina win totals, odds and results (2008-25)
(North Carolina historical win totals courtesy Sports Odds History)
| Year | Win Total | Over | Under | Actual Wins | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 7.5 | +135 | -160 | 4 | Under |
| 2024 | 7.5 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2023 | 8 | +100 | -120 | 8 | Push |
| 2022 | 7.5 | +115 | -135 | 9 | Over |
| 2021 | 9.5 | -120 | +100 | 6 | Under |
| 2019 | 5.5 | +100 | -120 | 6 | Over |
| 2017 | 7 | +140 | -160 | 3 | Under |
| 2016 | 8.5 | +100 | -120 | 8 | Under |
| 2014 | 8.5 | +130 | -150 | 6 | Under |
| 2013 | 9 | +133 | -170 | 6 | Under |
| 2012 | 7.5 | -165 | -130 | 8 | Over |
| 2010 | 8 | +100 | -130 | 7 | Under |
| 2009 | 8 | -120 | -110 | 8 | Push |
| 2008 | 6 | NA | NA | 8 | Over |
🔑 Key Takeaways
- A heavy Under lean overall: North Carolina has gone Under its win total eight times in 14 graded seasons, against four Overs and two pushes.
- Four consecutive Unders from 2013-17: North Carolina missed its win total in four straight graded seasons as the program underperformed through a stretch of totals ranging from 7 to 9. The market was consistently too optimistic about the Tar Heels during this period.
- It's been a rough stretch lately: After going Over in 2022, the Tar Heels pushed at exactly eight wins in 2023 then went Under in both 2024 and 2025. The program has failed to beat the number in three straight graded seasons while win totals have been set at 7.5 or above each time.
How North Carolina win totals are priced
Following years of plus odds on the Over side of the win total, oddsmakers are done messing around and have throttled North Carolina's actual number instead.
A three-win drop year-over-year is stark, but at least the Over is the favored result this time, with the O4.5 sitting at -130. And with the Tar Heels having won 5+ games in five straight seasons prior to 2025, there should be plenty of action on that play.
On the other hand, the schedule makers didn't do this team any favors. Its four non-conference games come against teams that averaged nearly nine wins last season (including UConn and Notre Dame), and the Tar Heels have difficult road contests along with home dates against Louisville and Miami.
The O/U on North Carolina's conference win total is 2.5, with the Over and Under installed at an identical -110.
The Tar Heels have gone just 9-19 ATS with a rest disadvantage since the start of the 2013 season.
North Carolina win total FAQs
Will North Carolina make the CFP?
North Carolina is a hefty long shot to reach the 2026-27 playoff, priced at +6500.
What is North Carolina's projected win total?
The Tar Heels’ win total sits at 4.5 for 2026, with the Over at -130 and the Under at +110.
Who is North Carolina's starting QB?
Billy Edwards Jr. tops the North Carolina quarterback depth chart. He has compiled more than 2,000 passing yards in three seasons with Maryland and Wisconsin.
What’s the best bet for North Carolina this season?
Based on our expert consensus, the smart play here is the UNDER on the Tar Heels' already modest win total.
