It’s time for Week 6 in college football, and we’re taking a closer look at the top upcoming games.
Headlined by the Florida Gators pulling off an upset over the No. 9 Texas Longhorns, here are my favorite college football picks for this weekend's slate.
Week 6 college football moneyline picks
| Matchup | Pick |
|---|---|
 Iowa State vs  Cincinnati |
+106 |
 Vanderbilt vs  Alabama |
-400 |
 Texas vs  Florida |
+220 |
 Virginia vs  Louisville |
-250 |
 Texas Tech vs  Houston |
-400 |
 Miami vs  Florida State |
-129 |
 Boise State vs  Notre Dame |
-1250 |
Lines courtesy of FanDuel as of 10-2.
Expert Week 6 CFB moneyline picks
Iowa State vs Cincinnati: Iowa State (+106)
Let’s kick things off with a slight underdog in No. 14 Iowa State, a 5-0 Big 12 team listed as a dog against a Cincinnati squad that just allowed 597 total yards and 10.9 yards per play to Kansas.
The Bearcats have a potent offense but a susceptible defense, whereas Iowa State has played well on both sides of the ball.
Vanderbilt vs Alabama: Alabama (-400)
There may not be a hotter 3-1 team in the sport than No. 10 Alabama.
The Crimson Tide have looked fantastic since the opening loss to Florida State, scoring two blowout wins and a victory in Athens over Georgia.
No. 16 Vanderbilt has benefitted from a +5 turnover margin and playing South Carolina without its best player (LaNorris Sellers), and Bama will have revenge on its mind after last year’s humbling defeat.
Texas vs Florida: Florida (+220)
Two inconsistent young quarterbacks? Check.
Two defenses performing head and shoulders above their respective offenses? Check.
These two teams are more similar than their records would suggest at first glance, so why not embrace the variance and take the home team coming off a bye week?
Virginia vs Louisville: Louisville (-250)
No. 24 Virginia is riding high after last week’s upset win over Florida State, but Louisville presents a tough challenge.
The Cardinals are 13-3 at home under Jeff Brohm and feature a suffocating defense (ninth in EPA per play) paired with an offense that’s hitting its stride now that its top playmakers are healthy.
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Texas Tech vs Houston: Texas Tech (-400)
No. 11 Texas Tech looks like a force on both sides of the ball, leading the nation in EPA per play defensively while ranking 13th offensively.
Houston’s offense simply hasn’t been able to put it together, ranking 132nd in success rate, so the Cougars will need a fair amount of good fortune to pull off an upset.
I’m betting against that happening.
Miami vs Florida State: Miami (-192)
No. 3 Miami looks like one of — if not the — best teams in the country, so you should have a darn good reason to pick against them. I don’t see the case for that here.
The Seminoles have shown lapses defensively (59th in success rate), whereas the Hurricanes have been tremendously effective on both sides of the ball (13th in offensive success rate, 10th on defense) and dominate both lines of scrimmage.
Boise State vs Notre Dame: Notre Dame (-1250)
The Fighting Irish are on a mission, and my sincerest sympathies to anyone standing in their way. No. 21 Notre Dame is averaging 7.3 yards per play offensively and has scored 40 or more points in three consecutive games.
Jeremiyah Love and company should have another banner day against a beatable Boise State defense (86th in EPA per play).
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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