The unbeaten Iowa State Cyclones travel to southern Ohio for a crucial Big 12 matchup with the 3-1 Cincinnati Bearcats.
Iowa State already boasts eight takeaways, and my Iowa State vs. Cincinnati predictions expect the Cyclones' defense to lead them to victory.
Read on for my college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati prediction
Iowa State vs Cincinnati best bet: Iowa State moneyline (+106)
The Iowa State Cyclones have the statistical profile of a team that can win outright as a road underdog.
The Cyclones are slightly stronger defensively, allowing just 309 yards per game compared to the Cincinnati Bearcats' 356, and they’ve forced eight takeaways while the Bearcats have generated only two.
Rocco Becht and Brendan Sorsby boast big-play capabilities, but the Cyclones' defense is in a better spot to slow Sorsby and win this Big 12 road matchup.
On third downs, the Cyclones offense sustains drives at a 49% clip — significantly higher than Cincy’s 39% — meaning the Cyclones are more likely to control time of possession and keep the ball away from Cincinnati’s offense.
While Sorsby and receiver Cyrus Allen have been dangerous for the Bearcats, Iowa State’s secondary allows fewer than 10 yards per completion and only five scoring strikes.
I’m betting on ISU’s ability to win the turnover battle, extend clock-winding drives, and its stingy defense paving the way to victory.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati same-game parlay
In addition to my best bet, I’m adding Iowa State running back Carson Hansen to score a touchdown after scoring twice in Week 5 against Arizona.
The Under is 2-0-0 in their last two meetings, and I’ll follow this trend and back the respective defenses in a tight, low-scoring battle.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati SGP
- Iowa State moneyline
- Carson Hansen anytime touchdown
- Under 53.5
Our deep-ball SGP: Rocco's modern life
Sorsby is lighting up defenses, but he pitched for only 69 yards against Nebraska, and I expect him to turn up against Iowa State. Cincinnati’s secondary has been vulnerable, and Becht has slung two or more TD passes twice in his previous five games.
Iowa State vs Cincinnati SGP
- Iowa State moneyline
- Carson Hansen anytime touchdown
- Under 53.5
- Brendan Sorsby Under 232.5 passing yards
- Roco Becht Over 1.5 passing touchdowns
Iowa State vs Cincinnati odds
- Spread: Iowa State +1.5 | Cincinnati -1.5
- Moneyline: Iowa State +100 | Cincinnati -120
- Over/Under: Over 51.5 | Under 51.5
Iowa State vs Cincinnati trend to know
Iowa State is 5-0-0 on the moneyline across its previous five games. Find more college football betting trends for Iowa State vs Cincinnati.
How to watch Iowa State vs Cincinnati
| Location | Nippert Stadium, Cincinnati, OH |
| Date | Saturday, October 4, 2025 |
| Kickoff | 12:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN2 |
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Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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