Cowboys vs Jets Predictions - Early Picks & Odds for Week 5

Expect Dallas to come out flat in familiar territory, but against a different New York team as the Jets capitalize on the Cowboys’ shortcomings.

Jason Logan: Senior Betting Analyst at Covers
Jason Logan • Senior Betting Analyst
Sep 30, 2025 • 15:13 ET • 4 min read

NFL

Match starts: 101 hrs
NYJ
35 %
DAL
65 %
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Justin Fields New York Jets NFL
Photo By - Imagn Images. New York Jets quarterback Justin Fields (7) rushes the ball.

The Dallas Cowboys are used to traveling to East Rutherford, just not to face the New York Jets.

Dallas takes on Gang Green at MetLife Stadium after an emotional overtime tie with the Green Bay Packers last Sunday night. New York, on the other hand, has a short week after losing at Miami on Monday night.

Here are my early leans and predictions for Cowboys at Jets on October 5.

Cowboys vs Jets predictions

Here are our early thoughts on the spread and total for this week’s game. We will have a full game preview (with a best bet and SGP) later in the week.

Early Cowboys vs Jets spread pick: New York +2.5

-105 at FanDuel

It would not surprise me to see the Dallas Cowboys come out flat in this road game. 

Dallas is still playing without WR CeeDee Lamb, has injuries up front on the offensive line, and is ripe for a letdown spot after crazy draw with the Packers and former star Micah Parsons.

The New York Jets had three turnovers and countless penalties in the Week 4 loss at Miami, which burned a solid effort from this offense. With QB Justin Fields back under center, New York amassed more than 400 yards on offense – 197 on the ground.
 
Dallas’ defense has been terrible overall, including rating 31st in run defense at PFF after allowing 164 rushing yards to Green Bay.
 
I’d much rather take the home dog at a field goal – which could pop up later this week – but if I have to lean early, I’m leaning to the Jets.

Early Cowboys vs Jets total pick: Over 47.5

-110 at FanDuel

The Cowboys’ defense has been blown up for big gains and plenty of points, offering little pushback in the red zone. With the Jets getting what they want on the ground, Dallas will have to hurry the pace and seek out big plays when it gets a shot at the football.

Dak Prescott is playing phenomenal through four weeks with the Cowboys passing game a Top 10 unit. Even with Lamb out, Prescott was able to spread the ball around to eight different receivers versus the Packers, totaling more than 300 yards and three passing TDs.

New York’s defense is still gaining traction in Aaron Glenn’s new schemes. It’s been lit up through the air, rating 30th in EPA allowed per dropback. The Jets have allowed 15 passing plays of 20 or more yards – third most – and all four foes have scored 27 points or more.

Cowboys vs Jets odds

  • Cowboys vs. Jets spread: Jets +2.5
  • Cowboys vs. Jets moneyline: Cowboys -142, Jets +120
  • Cowboys vs. Jets Over/Under: 47.5

How to watch Cowboys vs Jets

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Jason Logan Senior Industry Analyst Covers.com
Senior Betting Analyst

In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst; has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike. Since joining the Covers team back in 2005, he honed his handicapping skills to provide audiences with the most thorough insights, blending traditional capping methods with advanced modelling and predictive analysis. Jason has studied the ins and outs of the sports betting business, learning from some of the most successful gamblers in the industry and the biggest sportsbook operators on the planet. He is under center for Covers during NFL season as our top NFL expert, taking the points in his infamous NFL Underdogs column and representing the Covers Community at the Super Bowl. While he lives for football season, Jasons first love is basketball and that shows in his in-depth NBA, NCAA, and WNBA betting breakdowns. On top of being a mainstay in media from coast to coast; WPIX, PHL17, Fox 5 San Diego, WGNO, TSN, SportsNet, ESPN Radio; he had his analysis featured in USA Today, MSNBC, ESPN, the Wall Street Journal, CBS, Bloomberg, the L.A. Times, the New York Times and other major publications. You can also find JLo stuffing all the top picks and predictions he can into 10 minutes as the host of Covers; flagship podcast, The Sharp 600.

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