At some point, Wisconsin Badgers fans will stop believing their revisionist history that they were ever a top-five team. At its peak, the Barry Alvarez Era was a top-15 program.
The Michigan Wolverines are not currently a top-five team, but they are a physical enough one that they can make it clear to the Badgers that they are a far cry from their peak.
My Wisconsin vs. Michigan predictions and college football picks expect the Wolverines’ physicality to overwhelm the adrift Badgers on Saturday, October 4.
Our best Wisconsin vs Michigan SGP for Week 6
If Wisconsin cannot score, can it be expected to cover a spread short of 17 points? Because that really may be the question here.
The key to beating Michigan is to take advantage of a defense willing to allow short passes. The Wolverines rank No. 81 in the country in defensive success rate on dropbacks. Even New Mexico found success through the air.
However, the Badgers will not. Passing success is an area they are miserably lost in, ranking No. 47 in success rate and No. 90 in expected points added (EPA) per dropback. Effectively, Wisconsin will not find any chunk plays, and in time, Michigan will break up enough shorter passes to render the Badgers lost.
Then, if Wisconsin cannot score, can Michigan be expected to push toward an Over on its own?
The Wolverines should rip off some explosive rushes — Wisconsin is nominally good at cutting into opposing rushes on a snap-by-snap basis, but the Badgers give up chunk gains, something Michigan thrives on — though Sherrone Moore will be quite content to coast once he has a sizable lead.
Look for Justice Haynes to reel off a 30-yard or longer touchdown and then for the Wolverines to gladly chew up the clock.
Wisconsin vs Michigan 3-leg SGP
- Michigan -16.5
- Justice Haynes anytime touchdown
- Under 43.5
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